Mike Tomlin always finds a way — in the regular season. As for the playoffs, that’s another subject entirely.
After a year of patchwork play at the quarterback position, the Steelers now have Aaron Rodgers under center. But, he’s not exactly who he once was. With Tomlin seemingly always finding a way, this is an opportunity for Pittsburgh to once again be an AFC surprise team.
That is, of course, assuming Rodgers experiences a resurgence. Let’s look at how the sharps are viewing the Steelers and their new QB.
Steelers Win Total
After cruising past their 7.5-game win total in 2024, the Steelers have seen a bump in their win total ahead of 2025. However, it’s still just a one-game change, increasing to 8.5.
The bump may seem slight, but the AFC North continues to be a challenge, with the Ravens and Bengals still featuring top-end talent. But, the sharps think Tomlin and company can still do some damage.
The over on Pittsburgh’s Win Total has seen 80% of the handle on 68% of the bets made on this play. A public play with a clear sharp lean. Just one game over .500 is all it’ll take.
Looking at the To Make the Playoffs market, Pittsburgh is a popular option. With +145 odds — shortened from +260 last season — the Steelers are the seventh-most bet team by handle in this market.
Aaron Rodgers Futures Splits
In his 5-12 season with the Jets, Rodgers finished with 3,897 passing yards. Yet, the Pittsburgh QB finds himself with a Regular Season Passing Yards total of 3200.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If you think that number feels too good to be true, you are not alone. The under has seen 42% of the bets, so the over is the public play. But, those under bets have accounted for 63% of the handle, making that angle the sharp play.
Similar situation when you look at Rodgers’ Regular Season Passing TDs, which is set at 23.5. On 47% of the bets, the under has seen 54% of the handle. Not quite as sharp of a lean as his passing yards prop, but sharp nonetheless. (Not to mention, this is after he finished with 28 passing touchdowns last season.)
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Another Pittsburgh newcomer has experienced some interesting action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Right now, DK Metcalf’s Regular Season Receiving Yards total is 950.5. However, it originally opened at 875.5. Along the way, the over has seen 85% of the handle on 94% of the bets. Tough one to gauge given the movement and bettor behavior. If this total starts to slip down from 950.5, that would be a better time to take the over. If it continues to increase, then the under become the option to pursue.
Here are the splits on a few other Pittsburgh season-long player props:
- Metcalf’s Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is 6.5. The under has seen 40% of the handle on 19% of the bets.
- Jaylen Warren’s Regular Season Rushing Yards total is 600.5. The over has taken 93% of the handle on 87% of the bets.
- Kaleb Johnson’s Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is 725.5. The under has seen 69% of the handle on 27% of the bets.
If you’re bullish on Warren, then both the over on his prop and the under on Johnson’s make for a nice pair to pick from — whether you want to just back one option or both.
Looking on the other side of the ball, there are a couple ways to back T.J. Watt. He’s +950 to be named Defensive Player of the Year — those are the fourth-shortest odds in the market. To this point, Watt has seen 10% of the handle in the DPOY market on 13% of the bets, the latter of which being the second-highest percentage in the market.
Moving over to the STAT LEADERS category, Watt is +700 to lead the NFL in sacks — once again, those odds being the fourth-shortest in the market. At this stage, he’s seen the sixth-largest amount of handle in the market.
Betting Trends From 2024 to Consider
While the data above will help you with season-long plays, the following stats produced by Rodgers, Metcalf, Warren, Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth in 2024 are instead applicable to gameday player props. (Note: Some records below include postseason play.)
- Aaron Rodgers (with Jets)
- Passing Yards: 9-8 to the over
- Pass Attempts: 10-7 to the over
- Pass Completions: 9-8 to the over
- DK Metcalf (with Seahawks)
- Receiving Yards: 9-6 to the under
- Receptions: 12-3 to the under
- Jaylen Warren
- Rushing Yards: 9-7 to the over
- Receiving Yards: 9-7 to the over
- Jonnu Smith (with Dolphins)
- Receiving Yards: 11-6 to the over
- Receptions: 10-6 to the over
- Pat Freiermuth
- Receiving Yards: 9-8 to the over
- Receptions: 9-8 to the over
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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