Tonight’s final WNBA matchup of the day is between the Atlanta Dream and Golden State Valkyries.
The Dream has climbed to second place in the WNBA standings with a 21-12 overall record. Golden State has impressed in its inaugural season and sits in sixth place in the standings with an 18-15 record. These teams have faced off twice so far this season, with both sides picking up a victory.
The Dream are 4.5-point favorites and -198 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at O/U 152.5 points.
Dream at Valkyries preview
The Dream are shaping into a legitimate title threat and are just two wins shy of tying the franchise record for wins in a season, with 11 games remaining. They rank fifth in the league in scoring, sixth in field goal percentage, fifth in three-point percentage, second in three-point volume, and second in offensive rating. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 78.1 points per game––the third-best rate––rank fourth in defensive rating, fifth in opponents’ field goal percentage allowed, and eighth in opponents’ three-point percentage. Atlanta turns the ball over at the third-highest rate and forces the second-fewest turnovers per game.
Three-time All-Star Allisha Gray headlines the production with 18.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game while connecting on 40.4% of her three-point attempts. Rhyne Howard made a recent return from a knee injury and is averaging 16.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.4 assists on the year. Brionna Jones adds 12.9 points and a team-high 7.4 rebounds while pitching in 2.4 assists per game. Jordin Canada also averages 12.0 points and 5.7 assists, but is battling a hamstring injury that will keep her out today. Te-Hina PaoPao has proven to be a valuable piece off the bench and leads the team with a 42.5% three-point percentage.
The Valkyries have exceeded early expectations and quickly created one of the toughest home courts in the WNBA. They are 18-5 on the season and 10-5 when playing at home. Golden State averages 78.2 points per game, which ranks 11th. It ranks 10th in offensive rating, 12th in field goal percentage, ninth in three-point percentage, and first in three-point volume with 30.1 perimeter attempts per game. While the Dream rank second in this category, the Valkyries attempt 2.6 more long-range shots per game. They’ve had more success defensively, ranking second in opponents’ points allowed at just 76.8 points per game, third in defensive rating, first in opponents’ field goal percentage and fifth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Kayla Thornton was headlining the production with 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, but will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing right knee surgery. Tiffany Hayes is second on the team in scoring with 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 41.9% from beyond the three-point arc. Verocia Burton adds 11.2 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds. Forward Cecilia Zandalasini adds 11.3 points per game while rookie Jannelle Salaun is averaging 10.6 points and 4.7 rebounds per game.
Dream at Valkyries prediction, pick
The Valkyries’ defense has caused problems for opponents all season, including when they held the Dream to just 75 points back on July 29th. But Atlanta is the better team and has played some of its best basketball of late. It dropped the second half of a back-to-back against Seattle, but it is tough beating a team twice in a row. The 80-78 result in which the Dream outscored the Storm by 10 in the fourth quarter should not cause panic.
The 152.5 game total is prepared for a low-scoring matchup, but Atlanta put up 90 in its first matchup with Golden State. The loss of Thornton is a huge hit for Golden State and forces the team to further double down on its defensive identity. The blueprint to winning is based entirely on this side of the floor, and there is no true pathway to them matching Atlanta’s offensive output if it gets rolling.
Expect things to play out this way, with the Dream recording 85+ points in five of its past seven games. They have won eight of their last 10 games outright, and will be more difficult to stop than the Connecticut Sun and Los Angeles Sparks, whom they limited to fewer than 60 points across the past four games. Count on both Gray and Howard to shine as the two most talented players on the floor and solve the defensive puzzle. Atlanta’s defense is not far from the quality that Golden State possesses but the offense is a notable notch above. Expect the Valkyries to battle in the early portions of this game, but for the Dream to push the scoring margin beyond what they are capable of matching and covering the 4.5-point spread in the process.
