It is a full five-game schedule of WNBA action taking place tonight. In the early portion of the Friday, August 15th slate, the Indiana Fever will host the Washington Mystics.
The Fever sits in sixth place in the WNBA standings with an 18-15 record on the year. The Mystics are currently outside of the playoff picture with a 14-18 overall record, which puts them in 10th place. With roughly 25% of the season remaining, the playoff push is in full swing, and both these teams would benefit from picking up some momentum to close down the year. This will be the third matchup between these two teams this season, with each producing a victory thus far. Their last matchup was on June 3rd, which resulted in an 85-76 Fever win.
Looking at tonight’s odds, the Fever enter as 8.5-point favorites and -380 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics hold +300 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 162.
Mystics at Fever preview
The Mystics have shown some encouraging flashes in short doses, but are 14-18 on the season and enter tonight having lost five of their last six. Washington ranks 10th in the league in scoring at 78.8 points per game. They rank seventh in field goal percentage and eighth in three-point percentage, but attempt the fewest perimeter shots per game across the league. Their 16.9 three-point attempts per contest are nearly half of the league-leading Valkyries’ 30.2 three-point attempts per game and almost four fewer than the Chicago Sky, who attempt the second fewest at 20.8 per game. Washington also ranks fifth in rebounding percentage, eighth in pace, and 10th in net rating.
Defensively, opponents are scoring 80.8 points per game against the Mystics, which ranks sixth in the WNBA. They rank seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, fourth in opponents’ three-point percentage, and fifth in turnovers forced. Two-time steal champion Brittney Sykes was headlining the production with 15.4 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.4 rebounds. However, Washington traded her away to the Seattle Storm and is 1-3 straight up since this point. Rookie Sonia Citron has impressed and is adding 14.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and a team-high 1.3 steals while shooting 38.6% from beyond the three-point arc. Kiki Irafan and Shakira Austin each are averaging 12.5 points per game. Irafan leads the team with 8.6 rebounds per game, with Austin right behind her at 6.6.
Expectations were high for the Indiana Fever, and they have not quite lived up to them to this point. Caitlin Clark’s injury issues have been a driving force of this and remain a variable tonight. The reigning Rookie of the Year is set to miss her 12th consecutive game tonight and 22nd game overall. She has had her struggles when she has been on the floor as well, turning the ball over 5.1 times per game and shooting just 36.7% from the floor and 27.9% from beyond the three-point arc. As a team, the Fever is averaging 84.5 points per game, which ranks third in the WNBA. They rank fourth in pace, fourth in field goal percentage, fifth in three-point percentage, and eighth in three-point attempts.
On the defensive side of the ball, Indiana is allowing 81.5 points per game, which is tied for seventh in the league. They rank sixth in rebounding percentage, sixth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and are tied for the best opponents’ three-point percentage at 31.6%. Teams are also shooting the third-fewest three-point attempts against them. Kelsey Mitchell has stepped up as the team’s leading scorer amid Clark’s injury issues, averaging 20.0 points and 3.2 assists while shooting 38.3% from the perimeter. Aliyah Boston has taken another step forward this season, averaging 15.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. Lexi Hull and Sophie Cunningham are both capable of scaling up their offensive role when the situation requires, and have backed up their fan-favorite labels this year.
Mystics at Fever prediction, pick
The Mystics were shaping into a frisky team that had moved to 11-11 and were in the playoff mix before deciding to move on from Brittney Sykes. Washington is leaning into their youth movement and has good reason to believe in both Sonia Citron and Kiki Irafan growing into foundational pieces of the franchise. If it were not for Paige Bueckers, the WNBA Rookie of the Year Race would be taking place between the pair of Mystics standouts.
But Indiana also has had their struggles of late. They have lost three of their last four games and, in addition to Caitlin Clark, Stephanie Colson and Aari McDonald have each been ruled out for the season. Tuesday marked the first game all season in which Indiana was without all three of these impact players. They struggled greatly to execute the offense, turning the ball over 17 times, which the Dallas Wings converted into 27 points en route to the one-point upset on the road.
Washington produced an 83-77 victory in the first matchup before dropping the second game 85-76. The two teams are 1-1 both straight up and against the spread. Indiana entered the season intent on playing an up-tempo style of basketball built around Clark’s skillset. But her lack of consistent availability has complicated this and forced the team to play differently. The injury concerns are real on this roster, and Colson and McDonald adding to this list is a tough break for the Fever.
The 8.5 spread is too large for my liking, and the Mystics should be looked at as live underdogs in this game. If the Fever show the same sloppiness with the ball, Washington is capable of capitalizing and is already forcing 14.8 turnovers per game this year. The Mystics’ offense has struggled of late, but expect the Fever to sink to their level and continue adjusting to their shorthanded guard rotation. 8.5 is a significant spread with only 10 of their 18 wins covering this number this season. Expect this game to remain competitive with Irifan and Citron lifting the Mystics and keeping it competitive throughout.
In addition, the Mystics have been one of the better under teams in the WNBA this season, with their offense a major reason why. Since the beginning of July, they have been producing the second-worst offensive rating in the league and have seen their average points per game dip to 78.2. Indiana has also allowed fewer than 80 points in five of their last nine games and has been forced to embrace this side of the ball with Clark injured. Neither of these teams should be expected to light it up from the perimeter, with Washington especially unlikely to attack from deep. The Fever’s 81.5 points per game in August mark their worst scoring output of the season, and Washington has a respectable defense in itself. The under hit during both the matchups between these two teams this year. Expect this to be a bit of a defensive grind with offense looking difficult for both teams tonight. When push comes to shove, expect a low-scoring matchup that stays within the 8.5-point spread.
