This is the opener of a three-game series in Boston between the Red Sox and visiting Miami Marlins.
Sandy Alcantara is scheduled to pitch for Miami while Lucas Giolito is slated to start for Boston.
Marlins vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Sandy Alcantara used to be kind of good just a few years ago. He never overwhelmed with crazy strikeout rates, but he was a horse, pitching 200+ innings and having a FIP around 3. This season? The 6.69 K/9 is a career low. The 3.5 BB/9 is the highest since 2019. He is averaging 97.6 mph on the fastball, but the swinging strike rate is only 8.5%, a career low by a wide margin and the first time below 10% in his career. The ERA is 6.55! There is some solace knowing that the FIP is 4.55 and the strand rate is only 57.1%, but things are ugly in Alcantaraville.
Alcantara has struggled with lefties. The K-BB% is a laughable 1.1% while the FIP is 5.35. He has been much better at home as the FIP is 3.89 compared to 5.6 on the road.
Alcantara has allowed over three earned runs in 14 of 23 starts. This will be his first time facing Boston this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox have struck out at the fifth-highest rate while having the eighth-best ISO. Their wOBA is ninth-best in MLB.
Lucas Giolito used to sport a strikeout rate over 30%. Now, he’s at 19.7%. The fastball averages 93.5 mph, while the swinging strike rate is 9.9% and the chase rate is 28.5%. The average exit velocity is 90.5 mph, his barrel rate is 9.6% and the hard hit rate is 40.2%. Giolito is sporting a 3.77 ERA but the FIP is higher at 4.44. He’s allowed 15 home runs in 100.1 innings.
Giolito has been split and site neutral.
Giolito has allowed more than three earned runs six times. The range of outcomes is extremely wide, as he can get shelled for seven earned runs in 1.2 innings or go eight innings and allow only one earned run. This will be his first time facing Miami this season.
The Marlins have struck out at the 22nd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 17th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 12th as well.
As for the bullpens, Miami has the 16th-lowest FIP, while Boston has the sixth-lowest.
Marlins vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Oh how times have changed. Alcantara won the Cy Young back in 2022 and was one of the most consistent pitchers in the league. Giolito was prone to getting blown up. Now, I have more faith in Giolito than Alcantara. Life comes at us fast.
