This is the opener of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Texas Rangers.
Jacob deGrom is scheduled to pitch for Texas while Chris Bassitt is slated to start for Toronto.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Jacob deGrom is 37 years old and hasn’t pitched at least 100 innings in a season since 2019. Yet, he’s still averaging 97.5 mph on the fastball and sporting a 2.86 ERA. The FIP is higher at 3.53 and the BABIP is down at .239, but still, that’s pretty, pretty good. He has allowed 19 home runs in 135.1 innings, so that’s a slight bugaboo, but the control has been excellent with only 30 walks. The swinging strike rate is 14.3% and the chase rate is 32.4%. A true professional pitcher.
deGrom has been better against lefties but 12 of the 19 home runs have come off their bats. 13 of the 19 home runs have been issued on the road, but most of the advanced stats have been better on the road.
deGrom has allowed more than three earned runs only three times, but two of those have come in the last three games. He allowed five earned runs each to the Mariners and Angels, both on the road. He faced Toronto back in late May, going 5.1 innings, walking two and allowing two earned runs without striking out a batter.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays have struck out at the 30th-highest rate while having the 14th-best ISO. Their wOBA is third-best in MLB.
Chris Bassitt has a 4.17 ERA and 4.17 FIP! He’s averaging 91.5 mph on the fastball and has decent stats, but nothing to go bow wow yippee yo yippee ya about. The strikeout rate is 22.1% while the walk rate is nice at 6.1%. He’s allowed 20 home runs in 133.2 innings and he’s done a fairly good job of limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is 87.8 mph, barrel rate is 7.5% and the hard hit rate is 36.9%. The swinging strike rate is only 9.7% while the chase rate is 25.6%.
Lefties have given him much more trouble than righties. The K-BB% is 6.4% lower, while the FIP is over a run higher. 13 of the 20 home runs hit against him have come off the bat of lefties. Bassitt has been much better at home. On the road, the K-BB% is only 10.9% while the FIP is way up at 5.44, compared to 20.2% and 3.25 at home.
Bassitt has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He has given up six and eight earned runs in a game, so when it goes bad, it goes really bad. This will be his first time facing Texas this season.
The Rangers have struck out at the 19th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 20th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 26th as well.
As for the bullpens, Texas has the eighth-lowest FIP, while Toronto has the 13th-lowest.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
I like both pitchers and bullpens to stymie the opposing offenses.
