Running backs are top heavy in this year’s fantasy football drafts, so it’s a wise move to secure a high-end option early. That being said, there are many early-round running back busts every year. Avoiding those landmines will be crucial in succeeding in your league.
The high-end running back that I am avoiding most this year is Derrick Henry. The veteran was magnificent in his first season with the Ravens last year, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns and ranking third among running backs in FPTS per game (21.5 PPG). The main concern for Henry this season is that he is 31 years old and is entering his 10th NFL season.
Henry ranked second in the league with 325 carries last season with an eye-popping 2,355 carries. No running back in the NFL has had more carries than him since he was drafted in 2016. Ranking second to Henry over this span is Ezekiel Elliott, who is not currently signed and hasn’t been a relevant rusher since 2022. The point here is that running backs that primarily rely on their ground game quickly start to decline in their early 30s, so Henry is well overdue for some negative regression. It’s difficult to envision Henry having 300 carries again, especially if the injury bug catches up to him.
Another issue is that Henry, like Elliott, relies heavily on the run. Henry has never been a consistent receiver, and finished last season with 193 yards and two touchdowns on 19 receptions. The veteran only ran routes on 33% of his team’s dropbacks, garnering a target on just 12% of those plays. Of all the early-round running backs, Henry is the least. likely to succeed as a receiver. His lack of work in this department is unlikely to change at this stage of his career.
Henry’s success as a fantasy asset hinges on him scoring touchdowns, as 30% of his FPTS last season came via him finding paydirt. Henry scoring this many touchdowns this season is extremely unlikely. Not only is age a factor, but Lamar Jackson ranked fifth among quarterbacks in redzone rushes last season, too. Jackson will continue to steal touches from Henry in scoring territory, weakening Henry’s fantasy value.
Lastly, the Ravens have a difficult schedule in 2025. ESPN ranked Baltimore’s schedule as the ninth-most difficult as they will face a playoff team in nine games.
Henry’s regression feels inevitable, so fading him in the first round of your fantasy football drafts makes sense.
