Sean Payton saw something in Bo Nix that no one else did, and Denver’s head coach was rewarded with an unexpected playoff berth in 2024 as a result. While the Chiefs still reign supreme in the AFC West, Broncos fans should still have a high bar set in 2025.
The odds and totals set on DraftKings Sportsbook indicate the Broncos will be a quality team in 2025, but do the sharps feel similarly?
Broncos Win Total
On top of going 10-7 throughout the regular season, the Broncos also covered in 12 of their 17 regular season games. As such, their win total has bumped up from 5.5 last season to 9.5 this season.
Similarly, Denver’s playoffs-related odds have shortened across the board:
- Super Bowl: +10000 in 2024; +3500 in 2025
- Conference Winner: +6000 in 2024; +1600 in 2025
- Division Winner: +1000 in 2024; +400 in 2025
- To Make the Playoffs: +500 in 2024; -115 in 2025
The Broncos have emerged as a favorite of bettors in the To Make the Playoffs market. Denver is the sixth-most-bet team by handle in this market.
The over on Denver’s win total is also seeing a lot of action, but it does not have a sharp lean. On 77% of the bets, the over on the Broncos’ win total has seen 75% of the handle. So, not an overwhelming lean to the under, but a lean nonetheless — which may be the result of the Broncos being just 2-6 vs. playoff teams last season (3-5 ATS).
As for their Divisional Win Total, that number is set at 3.5. The over has received a staggering 99% of the bets and handle.
Bo Nix Futures Splits
Nix isn’t exactly a favorite to be named MVP in 2025, but he has seen a little action in the market on DraftKings Sportsbook. Two percent of the bets and handle have gone his way so far.
But what’s more important is how his season-long props are being approached:
- Nix’s Regular Season Passing Yards total is 3550.5. The over has seen 87% of the handle on 84% of the bets.
- His Regular Season Passing TDs total is 24.5. The under has seen 22% of the handle on 11% of the bets.
There isn’t a whole lot of under action on his passing TDs total, but the bets that have been made are significant. Whether you’re looking to fade Nix or back him, there is a clear set of splits that fit an over lean and another that align with an under.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Rookie running back RJ Harvey has a 700.5 total for his Regular Season Rushing Yards prop. The over is the popular play, seeing 76% of the bets, but that’s only accounted for 70% of the handle.
Meanwhile, Evan Engram has a Regular Season Receiving Yards total of 575.5 in his first year as a Bronco. That has seen a whopping 98% of the handle on 97% of the bets.
Courtland Sutton has a similar set of splits with Regular Season Receiving Yards prop, which is 875.5. To this point, 95% of the handle and bets have gone toward the over. The over on his Regular Season Receiving TDs prop (6.5) is still a popular play, but it does not have sharp backing. It’s seen 87% of the handle on 96% of the bets.
Marvin Mims Jr. has a sharp lean on his Regular Season Receiving Yards prop, but not one that Broncos fans will care to see. His number is set at 550.5, and the under has taken in 52% of the handle on just 29% of the bets. Of the bunch listed in this section, Mims’ prop has the clearest sharp lean.
Betting Trends From 2024 to Consider
While the data above will help you with season-long plays, the following stats produced by Nix, Sutton, Engram and Mims in 2024 are instead applicable to gameday player props. (Note: Some records below include postseason play.)
- Bo Nix
- Passing Yards: 12-6 to the over
- Pass Attempts: 10-8 to the over
- Rushing Yards: 11-7 to the over
- Courtland Sutton
- Receiving Yards: 8-6 to the under
- Receptions: 9-5 to the under
- Evan Engram (with Jaguars)
- Receiving Yards: 8-1 to the under
- Receptions: 5-4 to the under
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- Receiving Yards: 6-4 to the over
- Receptions: 5-3 to the over
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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