Is this finally Seattle’s year?
The Mariners are the hottest team in baseball at the moment, entering play on Wednesday with an eight-game winning streak. Just how good has Seattle been? Well, it’s completely erased a seven-game deficit in the AL West, as the club is now tied atop the division with the rival Astros.
Can the Mariners keep the good times rolling in Baltimore? Let’s preview this matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Orioles prediction, preview
This is a sneaky excellent pitching matchup. Let’s start with Logan Gilbert. Injuries have kept this from being a year where Gilbert is competing for the AL Cy Young award, but that’s the level of stuff and results we’re talking about with the right-hander. Over 83.1 innings, Gilbert has registered a 3.35 ERA and a 2.68 xERA. The biggest reason for the disparity? Strikeouts. ERA estimators love pitchers that limit opposing batted ball events and Gilbert does that with the best of them, maintaining a 35.1% strikeout rate that ranks in the 98th percentile of baseball. Gilbert’s 95th percentile whiff rate is pretty good, too (33.5%). On the rare occasion that Gilbert’s pitched poorly in 2025, it has been when the Mariners are playing away from T-Mobile Park, but some of that can also be blamed on a .377 BABIP within the split. Don’t overthink it too much.
The “sneaky” element of this pitchers duel is Trevor Rogers. The left-hander was underwhelming for the Orioles after last season’s trade deadline, yet Rogers has been a revelation so far in 2025. Over 10 starts and 62.1 innings of work, Rogers is in possession of a 1.44 ERA and a 2.56 FIP. In fact, outside of one bad outing at George M. Steinbrenner Field, Rogers has yet to allow more than two earned runs in an appearance this year. A notable uptick in fastball velocity seems to be the difference-maker for Rogers, who saw both his four-seam fastball and sinker get absolutely crushed in 2024.
Rogers should be able to continue pitching well on Wednesday, despite the Mariners’ recent run of success. For as well as Seattle has been doing in the standings since the All-Star break, and for as many bats as the team added at the deadline, the runs haven’t exactly been coming in bunches. To wit, the Mariners rank dead-last in batting average (.214) in the season’s second-half and have mustered only a 93 wRC+.
Mariners vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-103)
Simply put, this tilt features two of the AL’s best pitchers dating back to the beginning of June. Add in Seattle’s scuffling lineup and the under feels like the play.
Strong Lean: Logan Gilbert 8+ Strikeouts (+135)
Baltimore ranks second in strikeout rate in August (27.6%), as this exceedingly young lineup tries to find it’s footing.
