There have been quite a few inconsistencies in Atlanta the last few years, namely the quarterback position. But the one Falcons offensive player who’s been reliable has been Bijan Robinson, who followed up a nice rookie season with a Pro Bowl sophomore campaign.
The Atlanta running back has emerged as a legitimate Offensive Player of the Year candidate, being tied for the fourth-shortest odds in the OPOY market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
But will his play be enough for Atlanta to finally get back to the postseason for the first time since 2017?
Bijan Robinson Futures Splits
Robinson has emerged as one of the more popular betting options in the Offensive Player of the Year market. Only Saquon Barkley (+650), Ja’Marr Chase (+950) and Jahmyr Gibbs (+1200) have shorter odds to be named OPOY than the Falcons RB, who is tied with Derrick Henry at +1400. To this point, 12% of the handle (second-most) and 11% of the bets (third-most) have gone in Robinson’s direction. Yet, his current odds are the same as those he opened with.
Those looking for a Robinson play with shorter odds have three options to pick from in the PLAYER FUTURES category:Looking to his season-long player props:
- Robinson’s Regular Season Rushing Yards total is 1200.5. The over has taken 96% of the handle on 97% of the bets.
- His Regular Season Rushing TDs prop is 10.5. The over has seen 94% of the handle on 92% of the bets.
- His Regular Season Receiving Yards total is 375.5. The under has seen 41% of the handle on four percent of the bets
That receiving yards option sure has an interesting pair of splits.
For those looking to take an over on either of Robinson’s season-long rushing props, here’s another thing to consider: The most popular option by handle in the Most Regular Season Rushing Yards market under the STAT LEADERS category is Robinson.
Falcons Win Total
After finishing 8-9 (3-6 vs. playoff teams) with a 2024 win total of 9.5, Atlanta’s 2025 win total has taken a hit. It now sits at 7.5, which is a number the sharps seem interested in exploiting.
On 41% of the bets, the over on Atlanta’s win total has seen 65% of the handle.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
While it appears Atlanta will roll with Michael Penix Jr. this season, DraftKings Sportsbook bettors don’t seem ready to buy in him. His Regular Season Passing TDs total is 19.5, and the under has taken 56% of the handle on just 21% of the bets. Then with his Regular Season Passing Yards prop, 50% of the handle has gone toward the under on just 45% of the bets.
As for Pennix’s pass-catchers, there are three options (in addition to Robinson):
- Drake London’s Regular Season Receiving TDs total is 7.5. The over has seen 99% of the handle and bets.
- London’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is 1125.5. The over has taken 95% of the handle on 97% of the bets.
- Kyle Pitts’ Regular Season Receiving Yards total is 550.5. The over has seen 98% of the handle and bets.
No real strong lean with any of these options. With the under on Pennix’s passing yards prop seeing a sharp lean, it may also be worth considering fading one of his pass-catchers, as well.
Betting Trends from 2024 to Consider
While the data above will help you with season-long plays, the following stats produced by Richardson, Jones, Taylor, Pittman and Downs in 2024 are instead applicable to gameday player props.
- Bijan Robinson
- Rushing Yards: 13-4 to the over
- Rush Attempts: 10-7 to the over
- Receiving Yards: 10-7 to the under
- Receptions: 10-7 to the under
- Drake London
- Receptions: 10-7 to the over
- Kyle Pitts
- Receiving Yards: 10-7 to the under
- Receptions: 11-6 to the under
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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