While neither the Diamondbacks nor the Rangers have lived up to expectations this season, this afternoon affair is brimming with juicy storylines. Putting aside that it’s simply the rubber match of a three-game set, this is a rematch of the 2023 World Series. Two of the main characters in that Fall Classic? Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, who at the time, were both pitching for the same team. That is no longer the case.
On Wednesday, Kelly will make his first start against Arizona since being traded to Texas at the deadline. Gallen, his longtime teammate, will oppose him. Fun!
Let’s preview this 2023 interleague tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers prediction, preview
Kelly’s first impressions as a Ranger have been a bit of a mixed bag. The veteran looked great in his first start against the Mariners, striking out six and walking no one over 5.2 very effective innings. However, Kelly then followed that up by giving up five hits, five walks and four earned runs versus the Phillies last Friday. Which version of Kelly will show himself today? I’m inclined to believe it’ll be something closer to the former. The fact of the matter is that Kelly has been quite good in 2025. If you lop off Kelly’s opening two outings of the season — which does include a hellish performance in the Bronx — the 36-year-old has posted a 2.92 ERA and a 3.31 FIP with a 25.0% strikeout rate dating all the way back to April 8. Kelly’s trade didn’t turn too many heads at the deadline, but I swear, he’s a man you could start in a playoff game and feel pretty good about it.
Gallen was another name the Diamondbacks were expected to move on July 31, but unlike Kelly, the RHP stayed in Arizona. It’s been a disappointing campaign for Gallen, whose 5.31 ERA is the third-highest qualified mark in MLB. Some of that is purely bad luck, as Gallen’s 65.7% strand rate is easily the lowest of his generally positive career, but quality of opponent contact has also been a serious issue. Not only has Gallen conceded 1.49 opponent home runs per nine in 2025, but he’s registered a 17th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.4%). That said, he’s looked better since the deadline, with back-to-back quality starts versus the Rockies and the Athletics.
Gallen’s not the only Diamondbacks player to be thriving in August. Honestly, most of the lineup is flourishing, despite the losses of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. Arizona owns a 131 wRC+ in the month, which is the third-highest mark in the league behind only the Brewers and the Blue Jays — the only two clubs with 70 wins. That’s some pretty decent company. Blaze Alexander has been one of the biggest reasons for the offensive success, slashing .368/.478/.737 across 46 plate appearances within that span. Alexander has gone deep in both games of this series so far.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Merrill Kelly Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
The Diamondbacks own the league’s fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.6%) and the team leader in strikeouts is no longer on the roster — Eugenio Suarez (117).
