Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home runs during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
All 30 teams are set to take the field on Tuesday. Allow me to narrow the scope and give you my top three picks to go deep this evening.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Matt Shaw 1+ Home Run (+700)
In general, the Cubs have not been hitting well across the past 30 days, and that slumping has helped the team sink 6.5 games back of the Brewers in the race for the NL Central. Honestly, the only man truly pulling his weight within that span is Matt Shaw, who is slashing .323/.344/.758 with seven home runs and a .435 ISO in his 64 plate appearances. It’s been quite the turn-around for the former first-round pick, as Shaw had initially struggled to begin 2025, losing his starting job at third base and getting demoted back to Triple-A for a time. Now the former top prospect will get a chance to continue his torrid play against Jose Berrios in Toronto. Keeping opponents in the park has been an issue for Berrios during his tenure with the Blue Jays. In fact, dating back to the start of 2022, no pitcher in MLB has surrendered more home runs (105). Specific to 2025, Berrios has suffered some severe reverse-splits, with opposing RHBs mustering 1.84 long balls per nine. Woof.
Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Home Run (+400)
It’s been a bit of a disappointing campaign for Bobby Witt Jr. in the power department; well, as disappointing as a season can be when you’re leading the league in doubles (37). The biggest mystery has been Witt’s inability to do damage off of left-handed pitching in 2025, as all 17 of his home runs have come in right-on-right matchups. That ends tonight. Witt’s .493 expected slugging rate against LHPs remains the highest qualified mark on the Royals’ roster by a wide margin. The man is due for a long ball off a southpaw. Meanwhile, Mitchell Parker is more than willing to give up said homer. Parker enters Tuesday’s action ranking in the first percentile of the league in both opponent average exit velocity (92.1) and opponent hard hit rate (51.0%). It’s not like he’s been able to suppress overall opponent contact, either, as Parker is in possession of a fourth percentile strikeout rate (14.8%). He’s the perfect matchup to break Witt’s dubious streak.
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+170)
Let’s not overthink this one, shall we? Shohei Ohtani comes into Tuesday’s action with 100th percentile marks in expected slugging rate (.646) and barrel rate (22.5%). The reigning NL MVP also has 42 home runs, which place him in a tie for the most in the senior circuit with Kyle Schwarber. There’s a reason his odds to hit a long ball are so incredibly short all the time and he’s managed to go deep in each of his past three games. Still, you can’t bet Ohtani every night. What makes this one so special? Again, let’s keep things simple. Victor Mederos will be making his first-career MLB start this evening. In the 12.1 innings he has pitched in the big leagues, the right-hander has conceded 12 earned runs. In an opposite-hand matchup with an overwhelmed rookie, I’ll side with arguably the greatest baseball player who has ever walked this Earth.
