It’s going to be a crucial stretch run for both the Mariners and the Orioles, for vastly different reasons.
After making big splashes at the trade deadline, Seattle is preparing for a heated AL West battle with the Houston Astros, one that could go down to the wire. Winning their games against teams like Baltimore will be crucial to a successful playoff push.
It’s been a crushing season for Baltimore. After two straight playoff berths, they’ve cratered to the second-worst record in the American League. The pitching fell apart, their young hitters regressed, and it looks like some retooling is due in the offseason. The remaining 44 games will help them evaluate where upgrades need to be made, which players should stay, and who has to go.
The Mariners are a -158 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 9.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Orioles vs. Mariners game.
Mariners vs. Orioles prediction, preview
The matchup on the mound is imbalanced, to say the least.
George Kirby’s 4.05 ERA doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, but he’s been quite unlucky this year. Baseball Savant charts his expected ERA at 3.47. Armed with a real swing-and-miss arsenal, he will be vital for Seattle during the stretch run. This underwhelming Baltimore offense doesn’t pose much of a threat against his electric fastball, slider, and sinker combo.
Dean Kremer doesn’t have the same kind of swing-and-miss stuff. If there were a dictionary definition of a No. 4 starter, he would be the picture next to it. He’s pitched 125+ innings in the last four seasons, holding a 4.19 FIP. There’s a value in dependability and consistency, but that pans out over a season, not as much on a game-to-game basis. Kremer has allowed 3+ earned runs in his last three trips to the mound.
That’s going to be a problem against this new-look Mariners offense. You have to get through Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, and Josh Naylor unscathed. Then you have to do it again. And, if you’re lucky, a third time. It’s a tall task for Kremer before handing things off to the Baltimore bullpen, one of the worst in the majors this season.
