As a part of tonight’s 11-game MLB slate, the St. Louis Cardinals host the Colorado Rockies. These teams hold very different outlooks for the remainder of the season. The Cardinals are attempting to scrap their way into the postseason, while the Rockies have dropped to 30-87 on the year — the worst record in all of baseball.
Still, anything can happen in any given game, and St. Louis cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. They sit fourth in the NL Central and are 3.5 games out of a Wild Card seed. These teams most recently met for a three-game series that started on July 21st, during which the Rockies took two of the three games.
Looking at tonight’s odds, the Cardinals enter as -219 favorites on the Moneyline and -106 favorites on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockies hold +177 odds of getting the outright victory with the run total set at 8.5.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Cardinals vs. Rockies matchup.
Cardinals vs. Rockies prediction
Miles Mikolas is scheduled to get the start for St. Louis. He will be making his 23rd start of the year and enters with a 5.11 ERA, 122 hits allowed, and 76 strikeouts tallied across his 111.0 innings pitched. Mikolas has five scoreless outings to his name, but has also allowed five or more earned runs in six games this season. He is coming off his shortest outing of the year, being chased in three innings against the Dodgers after allowing five earned runs and three home runs.
Offensively, the Cardinals rank 14th in batting average, 12th in hits, 24th in home runs, 14th in total runs, and 20th in total bases. They hold a 60-59 overall record and have won three of their past four games. Brendan Donovan leads the team in hits with 115 on the season, with Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras, and Alec Burleson also over 100 hits on the year. Contreras leads the team in both home runs and RBIs with 16 and 65 on the year. Six players on the roster have 10+ home runs tallied.
Chase Dollander will get the start for the Rockies and has taken his lumps in his rookie season. He has a 2-9 record and enters with a 6.68 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and has allowed 74 hits and 15 home runs across his first 68.2 innings pitched. Doolander has not escaped a start this season without allowing at least one earned run, but this will mark his first time back on the mound since July 6th. The Rockies’ pitching staff is posting a collective 6.10 ERA, which ranks last in the MLB.
The Rockies are posting a .238 batting average as a team, which ranks 24th in the MLB. They also rank 24th in total hits, 20th in home runs, 22nd in total bases, 28th in total runs, last in on-base percentage, and have tallied the second-most strikeouts on the year. Hunter Goodman leads the team in hits (108), home runs (22), doubles (20), and RBIs (64). Jordan Beck is the lone other member of the Rockies with more than 100 hits, which includes 14 home runs and 42 RBIs.
Cardinals vs. Rockies pick, best bet
The Rockies enter this game on a seven-game losing streak and are coming off a 13-6 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday. Colorado has failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games and each of their last seven Monday games against teams with a winning record. They are 14-45 when playing on the road this season. The Rockies also have trailed after three innings in eight of their last nine games at Busch Stadium and trailed after five innings in each of their last 11 games overall. The lack of starting pitching has proven problematic all season, and they do not possess the caliber of offense to overcome this.
There have been some growing pains throughout the season, but St. Louis should be feeling the pressure of the playoff push. This is a series they must take advantage of. The Cardinals still have plenty to prove, but this is more of a fade of the Rockies than a direct belief in St. Louis. Colorado has not looked like a competent baseball team for quite some time, and their issues have only compounded in recent weeks. They were outscored 25-12 in the previous series against the Diamondbacks and 45-6 in the prior series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Expect the Cardinals to get the better of Chase Dollander in the early innings and for the Rockies to lack the offensive firepower to overcome the deficit. I am backing the -1.5 run line in favor of the Cardinals and also like the over for this game.
Each of the Rockies’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone over the total. Colorado is allowing 6.49 runs per game overall and has given up 13+ runs in four of their past six games. They add 3.70 runs per game, and even while this ranks 29th in the league, Miles Mikolas is not immune to allowing runs. Count on the Cardinals playing with a purpose and looking to capitalize on this matchup with the postseason stakes looming — they should play their way to a high-scoring victory tonight.
