It’s a sprint now. No longer a marathon. The beginning of each new series feels a little bit like meaningful December football, when wild-card-hunting teams and divisional rivalries are so taut it feels like any movement could shatter playoff hopes. It’s a fun time for a sport that relies on nine months of the calendar year—hence the marathon. I’ll have predictions and picks up for the Astros vs. Red Sox, Athletics vs. Rays, and Giants vs. Padres games up shortly. Erstwhile, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Reds vs. Phillies o9.5 total runs (-110)
I’m expecting fireworks in Cincinnati tonight. Great American Ball Park is a bandbox built for overs, boosting overall scoring by around 9% and home runs by 38% above average. The Phillies bring thump in spades. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper can both launch moonshots in this hitter’s haven. Reds rookie lefty Andrew Abbott has impressed, but his fly-ball tendencies in this launch pad are a recipe for trouble. Abbott’s early success masked some red flags; his ERA sat far lower than his FIP, and the regression has started to bite. He’s allowed a flurry of hard contact lately, struggling to keep the ball in the yard. On the other side, Phillies righty Taijuan Walker is more serviceable than dominant. Walker’s 4.06 FIP last year signaled he’s prone to loud contact when his splitter isn’t diving.
Cincinnati’s youthful lineup, led by electrifying Elly De La Cruz, plays with fearless aggression. They’ll attack Walker early in counts, and their mix of speed and power can manufacture runs in bunches. Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack at best. Neither inspires much confidence once the starters exit. The Reds’ relievers sport an ERA north of 4.50, often turning games into late slugfests. Philadelphia’s bullpen has electric arms but can be erratic, prone to walks and big hits in high-leverage spots. With the summer humidity helping balls carry and Great American’s homer factor among the highest in baseball, every deep fly is a threat. The Phillies have crushed left-handed pitching (top-five in MLB in OPS vs LHP this season), and the Reds typically fare better against righties with their lefty bats. All signs point to a shootout.
Tigers (-150) at White Sox
I’m backing the Tigers on the road, laying -150, in a matchup that sharply favors Detroit on the mound and at the plate. The White Sox are a shell of a competitive team – they’re coming off a historically awful 2024 campaign (41–121 record) that saw them post a 75 wRC+ as a team, one of the worst offensive outputs in modern history. Chicago’s lineup hasn’t improved enough to scare anyone; their young core slogged to an AL-worst 507 runs last year and remains punchless against right-handed pitching. Tigers starter Chris Paddack is a confident play here. Don’t be fooled by his 4–10 record. A lack of run support hid the quality of his pitching. His 1.25 WHIP in 2025 ranks among the top third of AL starters, and his fastball/changeup combination has looked crisp since mid-season. Paddack pounds the zone (career 4.4 K/BB rate) and should feast on a White Sox lineup that hacks at everything.
Meanwhile, Chicago is resorting to a bullpen day with opener Elvis Peguero, a converted reliever stretched thin. That’s bad news against a Detroit offense that’s finally come into its own. The Tigers’ young hitters have matured. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene are driving balls gap-to-gap, and Kerry Carpenter quietly owns a .850+ OPS vs righties. Gleyber Torres does good work, too. They’ll grind down Peguero early and force Chicago’s leaky bullpen into action by the middle innings. The Sox relief corps carries an ugly ERA over 5.00, often unraveling when pressed into long duty. In contrast, Detroit’s bullpen back end (Lang, Foley) has been lights out, ready to protect a lead.
Yankees -1.5 (+110) vs. Twins
It’s rare I see this much value on the Yankees run line, but tonight I’m pouncing. The Bronx Bombers face Minnesota’s rookie call-up Zebby Matthews, and it’s a brutal matchup for the kid. Matthews has excellent control, but he lives in the zone. That’s a dangerous game against New York’s power-laden lineup in Yankee Stadium. Left-handed hitters tattooed Matthews for a .315/.382/.620 slash line in his MLB debut stint, and that’s a fatal flaw versus the Yankees. New York can stack lefty thump with Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice, not to mention Aaron Judge who needs no platoon advantage to obliterate mistakes.
The short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium screams for a Matthews counter, but his arsenal lacks a shutdown pitch to fend off lefty bats. In fact, no park boosts left-handed homers more than Yankee Stadium, and Matthews’ fly balls could end up ten rows deep. On the flip side, Yankees starter Will Warren is an emerging right-hander who pounds the bottom of the zone with heavy sink. Minnesota’s offense skews left-handed and is prone to droughts against righty sinker-ballers. The Twins rank in the bottom third of MLB in OPS vs righties and could struggle to lift Warren’s offerings. History is on our side too: the Twins are 15–41 against the Yankees over the past decade, constantly coming up small in the Bronx. I see New York jumping on the rookie early, lighting up the scoreboard by the middle innings.
The hilarity of the Yankees’ “super-bullpen” since the deadline is indeed almost uncanny, and it makes taking any Yanks run line terrifying. But, at they’re best, they are a formidable back-end pitching team. You just have to hope something clicks. And that Devin Williams says “No thanks, coach,” when Boone has the call made to the pen.
