The Dolphins were certainly among the teams that had a frustrating experience in 2024. A lot of that centered around Tua Tagovailoa, who managed to play in 11 games despite his battle potentially career-ending injuries.
While Tagovailoa’s health is still simmering on the surface, Tyreek Hill’s future in Miami has also come into question. Something worth noting: His previous comments have not warranted a “Next Team” market under ROSTER SPECIALS on DraftKings Sportsbook, like Micah Parsons and Terry McLaurin. At least, not yet.
That said, the Wins Total market isn’t looking good for Dolphins fans, which may be the result of the Hill situation
Dolphins Win Total
After finishing 8-9 in 2024 — a year in which Miami had a 10.5 regular season win total — the Dolphins have seen their 2025 Win Total slip down to 8.5. Moreover, the under has seen 69% of the handle on 64% of the bets made on this play. Slight sharp lean while also being a public play.
If that wasn’t enough, look at some of these year-over-year odds changes for the Dolphins:
- Super Bowl: +1500 in 2024; +6000 in 2025
- Conference Winner: +950 in 2024; +2200 in 2025
- Division Winner: +180 in 2024; +475 in 2025
- To Make the Playoffs: -190 in 2024; +155 in 2025
Not to pile on, but the Dolphins have also seen the fifth-lowest amount of handle go their way in the To Make The Playoffs market — even though they’re a plus-money option that made the playoffs in two of the last three seasons.
Tyreek Hill Futures Splits
After leading the league with 1,799 receiving yards in 2023, Hill’s production was cut in half in 2024. As a result, his Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is just 975.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
It should come as no surprise to learn that the public loves the over on this option. All but four percent of the bets made on this play have gone toward the over. Those picks have accounted for 90% of the bets, indicating the under has a bit of a sharp lean (10% of the handle on four percent of the bets).
Things don’t get much better for Miami fans when looking to Hill’s Regular Season Receiving TDs market. The under has seen 42% of the bets, but those picks have made up 93% of the handle thrown down on this betting option.
All that being said, the second highest amount of handle placed on a given player under “Most Regular Season Receptions” in the STAT LEADERS category has gone in Hill’s direction. His odds in this market are +3500.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Things don’t get a whole lot better for the Dolphins when you look at the betting splits of other season-long player props:
- Tua Tagovailoa’s Regular Season Passing Yards prop is 3450.5. The over has taken 63% of the handle on 26% of the bets.
- Tagovailoa’s Regular Season Passing TDs prop is 23.5. The under has taken 87% of the handle on 47% of the bets.
- De’Von Achane’s Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is 900.5. The under has seen 66% of the handle on 32% of the bets.
- Jaylen Waddle’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is 925.5. The over has seen 83% of the handle on 94% of the bets.
- Waddle’s Regular Season Receiving TDs is 4.5. The over has seen 89% of the handle on 73% of the bets.
For those who want a pro-Dolphins prop, Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop and Waddle’s receiving TDs prop are the way to go. Those who want an under, consider Tagovailoa’s passing touchdowns prop or Achane’s rushing yards prop. Waddle’s receiving yards prop is definitely the murkiest of this group.
Betting Trends from 2024 to Consider
While the data above will help you with season-long plays, the following stats produced by Hill, Achane and Waddle in 2024 are instead applicable to gameday player props.
- Tyreek Hill
- Receiving Yards: 11-6 to the under
- Receptions: 11-6 to the under
- De’Von Achane
- Rushing Yards: 10-7 to the under
- Rush Attempts: 12-5 to the under
- Jaylen Waddle
- Receiving Yards: 8-6 to the under
- Receptions: 8-6 to the under
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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