Plenty of afternoon baseball to round out this weekends’ exciting series around the national diamond. I’ve got picks and predictions up for Padres vs. Red Sox, and Diamondbacks vs. Rockies so far. All my write-ups today, including this, focus on the evening slate of games! Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cal Raleigh to hit a home run (+220)
Cal Raleigh has ascended to the top of baseball’s power ranks, leading MLB with 44 home runs this season. The Seattle Mariners switch-hitting catcher pairs brute strength with elite Statcast metrics. He sits in the 95th percentile for expected slugging and 90th percentile in hard-hit rate. Meaning he consistently drives the ball with authority. In Sunday’s late matchup, Raleigh draws a favorable opponent on the mound: Adrian Houser of the Tampa Bay Rays. Houser is making just his second start for Tampa Bay and was shelled in his debut, yielding 11 hits and five earned runs (including a homer) last week. Even more telling, Houser’s underlying numbers are poor. He ranks in the bottom 14% of MLB for expected batting average and average exit velocity allowed, indicating hitters square him up with ease.
This matchup sets up perfectly for Raleigh’s left-handed power stroke. Houser struggled mightily against lefty batters in that debut and has allowed a .507 slugging to lefties in limited action. Raleigh, meanwhile, has been red-hot at the plate, homering in each of the first two games of this Rays series. In fact, there’s a case to be made that Houser is the softest pitching matchup Raleigh has seen all week. With Houser’s sinkers and cutters catching too much plate and Raleigh’s upper-cut swing in peak form, the conditions are ripe for Seattle’s home run king to remain hot and extend his streak to three straight games with a long ball. At +220 odds, Raleigh’s chance to go deep again offers strong value given his elite power profile and the exploitable opposing arm on the hill.
Corbin Carroll 3+ total bases (+105) vs. Rockies
The Arizona Diamondbacks offense should feast in their 4:10 PM home tilt against the last-place Colorado Rockies, and dynamic leadoff man Corbin Carroll is poised to lead the charge. Chase Field’s closed roof and summer conditions turn it into a launching pad, and Colorado’s pitching staff has been gasoline on that fire. They own an MLB-worst 6.02 team ERA and a .300 opponent batting average. Enter Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, sporting a ghastly 9.39 ERA in road games and a 1.78 WHIP overall. Gordon has been shredded for 13 earned runs in his last 5.2 innings away from home, struggling to miss any bats (just ~5.0 strikeouts per nine innings) and allowing constant traffic on the bases. This is a nightmare matchup for him against a D-Backs lineup that ranks seventh in MLB in runs and 4th in slugging percentage.
Carroll, a left-handed hitter, is the most lethal weapon in Arizona’s arsenal. He leads the team with 25 home runs (13th-most of any MLB hitter) and boasts a .878 OPS on the season, which ranks 11th in the majors. Against right-handed pitching, Carroll has slugged a robust .555. It’s reflection of his ability to drive extra-base hits off opposite-handed arms. That platoon edge is glaring here: Gordon has been tormented by lefty batters, allowing a .957 OPS to left-handers in 2025. In other words, Carroll’s strengths line up directly with Gordon’s weaknesses. Statcast data further underscores Carroll’s advantage. His average exit velocity (92.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (50%+) are well above league norms, while Gordon surrenders a hefty 90+ mph average exit velo and a high barrel rate when hitters connect.
All signs point to Carroll collecting at least two total bases, whether via a gap double or a pair of solid singles. He’s been seeing the ball well lately, with three homers in his last five games, so the power surge is there to support an extra-base hit. Given Gordon’s inability to keep runners off base or limit hard contact, Carroll should have multiple opportunities to slug the ball safely. Back the D-Backs’ young star to deliver another multi-base performance in a matchup tailor-made for his skill set.
Dylan Cease o7.5 total strikeouts (-110) vs. Red Sox
Dylan Cease has long been a strikeout artist, and 2025 is no exception. He currently leads all MLB starters with an 11.82 K/9 rate, underlining just how dominant his swing-and-miss stuff has been. In fact, Cease’s 30.6% strikeout percentage ranks in the top five among qualified pitchers. On Sunday evening, the Padres’ right-hander draws the Boston Red Sox lineup in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, a setting that should only bolster his chances of hitting the over on this strikeout prop. Cease’s raw results (a 4.60 ERA and 4-10 record) belie his underlying effectiveness. He’s an xERA darling with a 3.41 expected ERA, a minuscule .221 expected batting average allowed, and a devastating repertoire that can bail him out even when his control wavers. At home in San Diego, Cease has been particularly sharp, trimming his ERA to 3.72 with a soaring 12.2 K/9 rate. In other words, when he’s in his comfort zone on the mound, he’s piling up around a strikeout per inning or better with ease.
Boston’s offense is no pushover, but they are far less potent outside of Fenway Park. The Red Sox average over five runs per game overall, yet on the road they hit a modest .247/.315/.403 as a team. That’s a far more league-average output, which Cease can manage. Crucially for this prop, Boston’s lineup does feature several free-swingers whom Cease can exploit with his high-spin slider and upper-90s heater. He’s fanned 162 batters in 123 innings on the year, a testament to his ability to rack up Ks even against quality opponents. Yes, Cease can be volatile, occasionally issuing walks that inflate his pitch count, but his 36% whiff rate against right-handed hitters and overall swing-and-miss arsenal suggest he’ll still tally strikeouts in bunches. Expect Cease to attack aggressively from the outset, using Petco’s marine layer and spacious outfield to his advantage. He can challenge hitters without fear of cheap home runs, leading to more two-strike counts. With his strikeout slider biting and the Padres’ bullpen ready to back him up, Cease should be in position to log 8+ punchouts before he hands things over. Back the MLB strikeout leader to continue mowing hitters down and clear the 7.5 K mark in this matchup.
