A few weeks ago, it looked like the NL Central would be baseball’s most competitive division, with the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers jostling for position down the stretch. But after a hot stretch for the Brewers — even sans wunderkind Jacob Misiorowski — Milwaukee has opened up a four-game lead in the division as it seeks a sweep of the slumping Atlanta Braves.
For tonight’s 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch, Jose Quintana will toe the rubber for the Brewers, while the Braves will counter with Spencer Strider.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves prediction, preview
Despite a pretty tough schedule for Milwaukee — series against the Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Seattle Mariners — it has the league’s best record since the All-Star break with a 13-4 mark. Across that span, the Brewers have clicked on both sides of the ball, recording the fifth-highest OPS and the fourth-lowest ERA, and both of the games so far this series were decided by multiple runs. Atlanta, on the other hand, has been one of the league’s coldest teams since the All-Star break, posting just a 5-12 record thanks largely to a string of pitching injuries. The Braves patched some of those issues at the trade deadline by dealing for reliever Tyler Kinley and starters Erick Fedde and Carlos Carrasco, though none have had good seasons.
Strider is just about Atlanta’s last remaining first-choice starter, with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, Reynaldo López, and Grant Holmes all on the 60-day injured list. But even the one-time All-Star and Cy Young vote-getter has had his share of injuries this season, missing the first few weeks while recovering from 2024 elbow surgery and immediately suffering a mild hamstring strain. But he’s been solid in his 77.2 innings this season, pitching to a 3.71 ERA, including a 2.91 mark over his last nine starts. The 26-year-old has elite whiff and strikeout rates, but he also has just a fourth-percentile average exit velocity. Thankfully for him, Milwaukee hasn’t hit it very hard this season, and even its second-half offense has so far been driven more by contact (the league’s second-best batting average) than power.
Meanwhile, the journeyman Quintana has been the Brewers’ fourth-best starter — behind Misiorowski, Freddy Peralta, and Quinn Priester — but that certainly doesn’t make him a bad pitcher. This season, he’s had a 3.50 ERA (the fifth-best mark of his career) and though he hasn’t been quite as sharp over the last two months after a hot start to the campaign, he’s good enough to get the job done, as Milwaukee has won 11 of his 16 appearances. Still, he’s really struggled to fool batters, ranking in just the second percentile in whiff rate, the eighth percentile in strikeout rate, and the 19th percentile in chase rate, and both his 4.85 FIP and 4.84 expected ERA indicate that he’s gotten extremely lucky. The Braves both chase and whiff at below-average rates.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-110)
Though Quintana’s strong counting stats can arguably be attributed to luck, success over an 87.1-inning sample size isn’t purely luck, especially given Milwaukee’s strong defensive unit, and Strider is solid enough to limit the damage.
Strong Lean: Jose Quintana 3+ Walks Allowed (+185)
While Atlanta has struggled offensively overall since the All-Star break, it has drawn 85 walks, a whopping 21 more than any other team. Quintana has just a 32nd-percentile walk rate and has issued three or more free passes in seven of his 16 starts.
