If you fell asleep for the last week and suddenly woke up, seeing these Padres and Diamondbacks teams after the trade deadline would be jarring, to say the least.
Arizona made the decision to trade Eugenio Suárez, Merrill Kelly, Josh Naylor, Randal Grichuk, Jordan Montgomery and Shelby Miller. That’s about a quarter of the roster. Now it’s a new-look team, and the returns are already making their presence felt. New first baseman Tyler Locklear, the main return in the Suárez trade, is in for a fun stretch.
The Padres are challenging to recognize as well. The headliner is Mason Miller, who was dealt by the Athletics (along with starting pitcher JP Sears) for top San Diego prospect Leo De Vries. As if that wasn’t enough, GM A.J. Preller also went out and got All-Star 1B/DH Ryan O’Hearn and outfielder Ramón Laureano from the Orioles and catcher Freddy Fermin from the Royals. It’s a serious haul and a boost for a stretch run where the Padres will challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title.
The San Diego Padres are -137 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at nine runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction and best bet for this Padres-Diamondbacks game.
Padres at Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Up and down, these rosters look new. But the starting pitchers are familiar.
Yu Darvish takes the mound coming off his best start of 2025. Against the Mets, the former All-Star spun seven scoreless innings, striking out seven with no walks and two hits allowed. It’s a significant turn from his previous four starts this year, where Darvish gave up 17 runs in 16.2 innings. For the soon-to-be 39-year-old, getting back on the mound is a major accomplishment, but he’s difficult to trust at the moment.
Ryne Nelson is on the other side of the trustworthiness scale. He’s had 10 turns on the mound as a starter in a row, and after getting shelled in his first trip, he’s settled in very well. Nelson has a 1.95 ERA in his last nine starts, allowing one or fewer earned runs in seven of nine. The Diamondbacks have also won seven of those nine starts, despite being a mediocre team. He’s also delivered at least five innings in eight of nine. That kind of consistency goes a long way for a team in the midst of serious turnover.
The dependability gap between these starting pitchers makes me believe in the underdog Diamondbacks. Despite their seller status, they retain an elite top of the lineup in Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. If Locklear is the real deal, which I think he is, that top four could become a real problem. This Padres offense remains in wait-and-see mode, and I’d like to see what O’Hearn/Laureano can do for the lineup before trusting them to rough up good pitchers.
