Although several impactful players changed teams at last Thursday’s MLB trade deadline, many of the marquee moves were centered around relief pitchers. The Chicago Cubs arguably should’ve acquired a starter, but instead, it was their opponent tonight — the Cincinnati Reds — who landed probably the second-most impactful starter to move teams.
That hurler — former Tampa Bay Rays man Zack Littell — will make his Reds debut in tonight’s 7:05 p.m. ET series opener, while the Cubs will start Shota Imanaga.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs prediction, preview
This season, Chicago’s rotation has had just the 14th-best ERA in the league, which would be fine if the Cubs didn’t have realistic championship aspirations. But with Jameson Taillon still on the injured list, Chicago will need Taillon to be healthy and effective if it wants to win the World Series this season. The offense is fine — it has been a consistently elite unit all season and has still ranked 12th in OPS since the All-Star break — but the team’s 8-8 record to open the second half can be pinned largely on the pitching staff. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has posted a 9-7 record with the eighth-best ERA since the showcase and bought at the trade deadline despite trailing the San Diego Padres by three games for the final National League Wild Card spot.
For the Reds, Littell makes some sense. This season, Cincinnati has induced chases at the league’s 10th-lowest rate, a category in which Littell ranks in the 84th percentile, and as a result, it has also issued walks at an above-average rate. Littell ranked second in the AL in walks per nine innings and sixth in strikeout-to-walk ratio prior to the trade. Plus, most of the damage against him came early in the season, as he’s carried a 3.09 ERA since April 16. The major question is whether the Cubs, who rank third in homers overall but only 13th in that stat at home, will be able to get to Littell, whose 26 long balls are more than any other pitcher. Littell’s huge disparity between ERA and his 4.89 FIP is likely sustainable since the Reds’ fielders are better than Tampa Bay’s.
As for Imanaga, he has generally been exceptional in his second MLB campaign, but he missed seven weeks in May and June with a hamstring injury and has put up two stinkers in a row, giving up seven runs in three innings against the Chicago White Sox on July 25 and three in five innings five days later against the Milwaukee Brewers. Worryingly, both of those starts came on the road, where he’s still posted better numbers than he has at Wrigley Field despite the back-to-back poor efforts. Still, I back Imanaga to put up a resurgent effort tonight. Like Littell, the splitter specialist has elite control, and though he has just a 17th-percentile barrel rate, Cincinnati is one of the softest-hitting teams in the league.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-122)
Neither of these pitchers are quite elite — Littell ranks in the 60th percentile by run value, and Imanaga in the 62nd — but both are quietly pretty effective. The Reds’ redhead is in better form, but their offense seems poised to gift Imanaga a bounce-back performance.
Strong Lean: Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Home Runs (+425)
It seems somewhat obligatory that I opt for one Chicago player to go deep against the league leader in home runs, and while Kyle Tucker has been somewhat cold since the All-Star break, I like Crow-Armstrong’s value at +425. Littell loves to throw sliders, and PCA has slugged a solid .458 against the pitch this season.
