The Seattle Mariners, three games behind the Houston Astros at 60-53 for first in the AL West and 1.5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers for the third and final Wild card spot, were one of the league’s most all-in teams at the trade deadline, dealing for the Arizona Diamondbacks’ corner infield duo of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez. With their new additions in the fold, they took three of four from the Rangers in the weekend series and have a three-game home set against the Chicago White Sox beginning tonight.
For the 9:40 p.m. ET series opener, the White Sox will start Davis Martin, while Seattle will counter with All-Star Bryan Woo.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
Normally, facing Chicago would be a dream scenario for a star pitcher like Woo, but the White Sox have been undeniably hot in the last month, going 14-11 with a .775 OPS since July 4 — a mark that would rank second league-wide across the full season. Chicago then maintained Luis Robert Jr., a former wunderkind who’s posted a .939 OPS since July 8 after sitting below the Mendoza Line for most of the season, so its offense at least has a dangerous talent. Meanwhile, Suárez is just two-for-17 in his four games back with the Mariners and Naylor is eight-for-38 in his 10 games, and overall, Seattle has had the worst offense since the All-Star break.
If Suárez and Naylor can’t get it going tonight, that’ll put a lot of pressure on Woo, whose 133 innings already represent a career high. The 25-year-old had a rough go of it in his last start, on July 30 in West Sacramento, allowing five runs on four homers in 6.1 innings pitched to the Athletics, marking the second time that the Athletics have gotten to him this season. It wasn’t a matter of fatigue — though he didn’t pitch great, the Athletics also benefited from some luck — so he should be a good candidate to bounce back tonight, especially at a venue where he’s posted just a 2.29 ERA so far.
The inverse is true of Martin: if the White Sox can keep their offense rolling, he should do enough to keep them in the game. Since a blow-up start on April 5 in his second outing of the season, Martin hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any game and has pitched to a solid 3.59 ERA, and though his 4.19 FIP indicates that he hasn’t been meaningfully better this season than he was in the prior two seasons of his career, luck over a 91.1-inning sample size isn’t pure luck anymore. Still, Seattle isn’t a great matchup for him, since he’s struggled to limit hard hits and the Mariners have produced them at the seventh-highest rate.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+201)
The Mariners are a better team and should win, especially with Naylor and Suárez joining Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, and Julio Rodríguez in the fold, and advanced analytics are far kinder to Woo than to Martin. Still, Chicago has been an above-average team for a solid month, so getting it at +201 is great value.
Strong Lean: Davis Martin O4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Though I’m concerned that the White Sox, whose bullpen is well-rested after yesterday’s off day, will play it cautious with him two weeks after returning from a forearm strain, this is good value. Seattle has struck out the third-most times since the All-Star break, and all of Raleigh, Arozarena, Suárez, and Rodríguez are all-or-nothing-type players.
