Looking for MLB picks August 5? We’ve got three value-packed bets for Tuesday’s slate, including Nationals vs. A’s through five innings, Kyle Schwarber’s total bases prop, and the Mariners’ team total. Each pick is backed by stats and matchup edges to help you bet smarter.
Let’s jump into today’s best MLB picks August 5.
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MLB Picks August 5: Best Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Washington Nationals -0.5 F5 Run Line (+110) vs. Athletics
I really like the Nationals to have the lead at the end of five innings tonight. Luis Severino gets the start for the Athletics, and his biggest weakness has been his performance against left-handed hitters — especially on the road. In those situations, Severino has allowed a .342 wOBA and a 4.35 FIP. That’s a problem against a Washington lineup projected to feature at least six left-handed bats.
The Nationals also excel against the four-seam fastball, which Severino throws 42% of the time. Their expected lineup has a combined .335 wOBA and .207 ISO against that pitch, putting them in a strong position to get to him early.
On the other side, Oakland’s offense has struggled against left-handed pitching. Their projected lineup owns just a .256 wOBA and a .125 ISO against southpaws — both well below league average. That sets up nicely for MacKenzie Gore, who’s looking to bounce back after a rough outing against Houston. Gore has been significantly better at home this season, with a .282 wOBA allowed and a 3.34 FIP in Washington.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) vs. Orioles
We’re getting even money again for Kyle Schwarber to record 2+ total bases — and that’s a price worth jumping on. Schwarber is averaging 2.1 total bases per game this season and has already gone over this number in three of four games to start August. Since the All-Star break, he’s cleared this line in 9 of 16 games for the Phillies.
Tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer, who’s struggled to contain left-handed hitters. Kremer owns a .330 wOBA and a 4.18 FIP against lefties, with 10 of the 17 homers he’s allowed coming against them. His splits are even worse on the road, where he’s posted a .356 wOBA and surrendered 7 of those home runs.
Given the way Schwarber is swinging the bat right now, even money on 2+ total bases feels like a strong value.
Seattle Mariners Over 4.5 Total Runs (-105) vs. White Sox
The Mariners open a three-game home series tonight against the White Sox and get a favorable matchup against starter Davis Martin. While his 3.84 ERA may look solid on the surface, the underlying metrics tell a different story — he’s carrying a 5.33 expected ERA (xERA) and a 4.42 FIP, making him a clear regression candidate.
Seattle’s offense is built to take advantage. The Mariners already hit fastballs well, and they’ve recently bolstered their lineup with the additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez. By wOBA, both Naylor and Suarez now rank as the team’s top two hitters against four-seam fastballs — Martin’s primary pitch.
While Martin held Seattle in check when they met in May, that game was in Chicago and came before these key lineup upgrades. Now in Seattle, Martin’s road splits raise more concern — he’s allowed a .340 wOBA and has a 4.77 FIP away from home. With the Mariners heating up and added firepower in the lineup, this is a great spot to back their team total over 4.5.
Good luck with these MLB picks tonight!
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