Let’s get this part out of the way first — last season I bet Saquon Barkley to go under 1100.5 rushing yards. I lost that bet by more than 900 yards, and that was with Barkley taking Week 18 off just to get some extra rest for the postseason, in which the Eagles ultimately won the Super Bowl. I’ll take my bow. I lost the same amount of money as I would have if Barkley went over by one yard on the final play of the season, although losing the way it did might be a bit more embarrassing.
But hey, no ego here, just the stubbornness to come back and tell you why Barkley under might be a good bet this time around.
Saquon ran for a historic 2,005 yards in just 16 games in 2024, but it led to a historic player prop for the 2025 season. DraftKings Sportsbook opened Barkley’s rushing yards prop for 2025 at 1500.5 yards — which is the second highest season-long rushing prop in the history of DKSB. If you were curious, Derrick Henry was 1555.5 in 2021 — he failed to reach 1,000 yards and played in just eight games.
Coming up short the following season has been a theme for these 2,000-yard rushers over the course of NFL history. Barkley became the ninth running back to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark, and seven of the previous eight have failed reached more than 1,364 rushing yards in the following season. The exception would be Barry Sanders, who ran for over 2,000 yards in 1997, and followed it up with 1,491 rushing yards in 1998. Of course, in true Barry Sanders fashion, he then retired.
If we take all eight players that ran for over 2,000 yards in a season prior to Barkely, they’ve gone on to average a combined 1,079 rushing yards the following season. Barkley is now 28-years-old and coming off a career-high 345 carries in the regular season — 436 total carries if we include the playoffs!
2024 was just the third time in his career Barkley played at least 16 games. The previous two times Barkley has even eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards in a season, he’s failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark the following season. You’d have to think the Eagles look to give Barkley some breathers during the regular season to keep him fresh for another postseason run. Philly’s acquisitions would seem to suggest so, bringing in AJ Dillon from the Packers — who has received a total of 551 carries for 2,186 rushing yards over the last three seasons combined.
The betting market is going to make Saquon prove he can do it again this season, with DraftKings Sportsbook now showing 1425.5 on Barkley, with -140 to the under. That’s a significant drop from the 1500.5 opener. While the ticket count is relatively equal (53% tickets to the over/47% to the under), 83% of the handle has come in on the under.
Given the history of running backs trying to recreate the magic the season after rushing for 2,000 yards, betting Barkley to go over his prop is one of the worst season-long plays on the board. The previous eight elite backs are just 1-7 to the over at 1425.5 yards, suggesting there still might be some value on an under play, even with the market already taking significant money.
