At long last, the Los Angeles Dodgers are back on friendly turf for six games after a nine-game road trip in which they went 5-4. The reigning World Series champions are clinging to a three-game lead in the NL West headed into series with the St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays.
For tonight’s 10:10 p.m. ET series opener, the Dodgers will have Tyler Glasnow start, while the Cardinals opt for Sonny Gray.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Los Angeles managed a series victory against the Tampa Bay Rays despite a still-cold offense that had an 18-inning scoreless drought between the sixth inning of the series opener and the fifth inning of the rubber match. The continued offensive malaise has left the Dodgers with just a .662 OPS and a 9-15 record since July 4, a mark that would be the league’s second-worst across the full season, but the fact that the bullpen gave up just one run against the Rays has to be considered a positive, with deadline acquisition Brock Stewart pitching a scoreless inning. St. Louis, meanwhile, has yet to pick up a series win in the second half, going just 5-11 and posting the second-lowest OPS and eighth-highest ERA.
Perhaps no pitcher exemplifies the Cardinals’ uncanny struggles in recent weeks better than Gray, who was having an excellent season prior to the start of July but has posted a hideous 11.48 ERA in his three second-half starts, and though his 5.96 FIP and solid whiff rates over that span indicate that he’s gotten fairly unlucky, St. Louis has had a below-average fielding unit all season. Gray’s struggles could continue against even an out-of-form Los Angeles offense, given that his biggest issue is giving up barrels, which the Dodgers record at the league’s fifth-highest rate. Los Angeles also walks at the league’s third-highest rate, so Gray’s exceptional control will be tested.
Like Gray, Glasnow is in need of a bounce-back. After an exceptional return from an injury that held him out for three months, in which he conceded just two earned runs in 18.0 innings across his first three starts, the Cincinnati Reds got to him for four runs in four innings, and more worryingly, he walked five batters for the second time this season. The six-foot-eight right-hander has produced strikeouts at one of the league’s highest rates, but his chase rate sits in just the first percentile and his walk rate in the fifth. As the Cardinals are roughly league-average in both chase and walk rates, Glasnow could be in for a short outing, testing the Dodgers’ fairly well-rested bullpen.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 17.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Neither of these offenses is in great form, and both Gray and Glasnow are elite at recording K’s. While Los Angeles strikes out significantly less at home, St. Louis strikes out significantly more on the road, so those factors should roughly cancel each other out.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Runs (+205)
Ohtani’s homer props usually have less than 2-to-1 odds, so getting him above this number is excellent value. Gray has given up 15 homers this season, but 19 of the hits against him would’ve left the park at Dodger Stadium, which has been the league’s most homer-friendly venue this season. Ohtani has homered in each of his last five home games.
