On Monday night, Major League Baseball starts the new week with style, featuring 13 games under the lights. We’ll have to keep an eye on the weather in Atlanta, but other than that spot, the slate looks pretty clean. From the 26 teams in action, several strong home run props deserve consideration at a variety of odds and locations. After looking at the matchups, environments, and current form of the players on the board this Monday, my favorite home run props are from Giancarlo Stanton, Bo Bichette, and Freddie Freeman.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, making home run props never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, these picks still remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, which boosts the ceiling of your betting card even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Giancarlo Stanton to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Stanton and the Yankees head are in Texas to take on the Rangers on Monday after suffering a sweep in Miami over the weekend. Without Aaron Judge (elbow), the team has dropped seven of their last 11 games but are still holding the second AL Wild Card spot. The Rangers are one of the teams in pursuit, 2.5 games back of the Yankees and two games behidn the Mariners for the third Wild Card spot. On Monday, Stanton will try to help make up for Judge’s absence, and he gets a great matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin in the series opener.
While dealing with injuries in both elbows, Stanton missed the first three months of the season. He has contributed good numbers since his return, though, with nine homers in 35 games along with a .268 batting average, .244 ISO and .361 wOBA.
Eight of his nine home runs have come in his last 19 games, and he has a 59.5% hard-hit rate over that span along with an elite average exit velocity of 97.0 miles per hour.
While he still strikes out a lot and doesn’t hit for a great batting average, Stanton’s bat speed is still elite, giving him plenty of potential to post a home run in any matchup, especially in a favorable one like Monday’s in Arlington.
Stanton has gone 9-for-27 (.333) against Corbin in their past meetings with five extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs. Corbin has had a good bounce-back year with the Rangers, but he has given up 14 homers in his 20 starts, and nine of those have been to righties like Stanton, who have a .320 wOBA against him overall and a .334 wOBA at Globe Life Field, where he’ll take on the Yankees on Monday.
Stanton brings pretty solid value to Monday’s home run props as well since he’s still at +350.
Bo Bichette to record 1+ home runs (+400)
Bo knows Coors Field.
The Blue Jays are in a great matchup against Tanner Gordon and the Rockies on Monday night as they open their series in Denver. Gordon has allowed 18 runs in his 26 MLB innings this year, and righties have hit .367 with a .423 wOBA against him. He did look good against the Cardinals in his most recent home start but gave up seven runs in three innings to the Guardians last Tuesday.
Bichette has been outstanding for the Blue Jays over the last month, and even though his power numbers are down a bit, he has put together a very strong season in the final year of his contract. He’s hitting .380 with a .422 wOBA over the last month with 13 doubles, two home runs, and a solid 47.9% hard-hit rate.
He has 13 homers on the season but hasn’t homered in 11 games, which is why the odds for his home run props have climbed to +400 despite the homer-friendly environment.
Bichette’s father, Dante Bichette, played eight seasons in Colorado and racked up 201 homers in his seven full years with the Rockies. This will be Bo’s first career appearance at Coors Field, and it seems poetic that he would be set up to go deep on Monday night.
Freddie Freeman to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Freeman is another veteran value option that I like a lot in Monday’s home run props. He and the Dodgers are coming home to take on the Cardinals after taking two of three games from the Rays in Tampa to finish a nine-game road trip.
In Tampa, Freeman hit this blast on Friday and picked up multiple hits in all three games in the series.
Freeman has 12 homers on the year, including two in his last 10 games, while going 17-for-42 (.405) with a .449 wOBA and 50% hard-hit rate. He’s hitting .325 with a .390 wOBA and nine of those 12 homers against righties, and he’ll take on righty Sonny Gray in Monday’s series-opener against St. Louis.
Gray has scuffled a little bit lately, going 2-3 in his last six starts with 26 runs allowed in 27 2/3 innings. He has given up five homers in his last three starts and eight homers in his 44 2/3 innings on the road this season. Freeman has gone 5-for-17 in the past against Gray but has not hit a home run against him.
Freeman’s home run props are all the way up to +500 in this matchup, which makes him an excellent value given how well he has been hitting lately and his elite track record of production.
