DKNetwork Logo DKNetwork Logo
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction, pick for Sunday 8/3/25

Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction, pick for Sunday 8/3/25

Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Network

Published:

By: Dan Johnson

Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday baseball game between the Cubs and the Orioles.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Cubs vs. Orioles prediction, preview

Colin Rea’s 58% ground-ball rate and 3.76 home ERA showcase his sinker-heavy command. His 2.66 K/BB ratio ranks in baseball’s top quartile for mid-rotation arms. Brandon Young counters with a 6.63 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, surrendering 1.96 homers per nine, nearly double league average.

Chicago’s lineup screams volatility with a 112 wRC+ at home and a 42 percent team hard-hit rate. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 27 homers come with a .357 xwOBA, and Seiya Suzuki paces with a .507 SLG alongside a .359 xwOBA. Nico Hoerner’s 3.94 pitches per plate appearance fuel a .339 OBP. Cubs rank second in MLB OPS against righties.

Baltimore showed surge yesterday via Henderson’s three-run blast, evening the series at one win apiece. That clutch drama masks Game 1 context: Chicago throttled Baltimore 1-0 behind Matthew Boyd’s eight-strikeout masterpiece. Today resets everything.

Some will praise Henderson’s power, overlooking his five-percent barrel rate and 24% strikeout frequency. Those metrics sit well below elite tiers. Jackson Holliday posts a 121 wRC+ versus right-handers, but his .308 OBP ranks in baseball’s bottom quarter.

Orioles vs. Cubs pick, best bet

Wrigley’s wind-in conditions suppress offense with a 0.898 run factor this season. That environment amplifies Rea’s sinkers and changeups while negating Young’s fly-ball tendencies. Baltimore chases breaking balls 27% of the time, fueling a 23.8 percent strikeout mark. Their bullpen posts a 4.83 ERA since July 31, revealing depth erosion post-deadline. Chicago’s relievers sit fifth in MLB with a 3.42 relief ERA.

Cubs have covered seven of eight day-game spreads after losses. Orioles have failed to cover five of six road games versus NL Central foes following a win. Under eight total runs has cashed in seven of eight day matchups between these clubs.

I’m pounding the Cubs on the run line. Chicago –1.5 at plus money delivers unassailable value given this steep starter gap. I expect Rea to navigate six scoreless innings, then unleash a fresh pen to slam the door.

Best bet: Cubs -1.5 (105) at Nationals

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

Dan Johnson
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.