After a trade deadline in which they mostly stood pat, the Los Angeles Dodgers now lead the surging San Diego Padres by just three games atop the NL West. The Dodgers, six games into a nine-game road trip, will conclude with a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays in central Florida.
Los Angeles will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound for tonight’s 7:35 p.m. ET series opener, while Tampa Bay will counter with Shane Baz.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays prediction, preview
The Dodgers are 3-3 on the road trip so far, dropping two of three to the Boston Red Sox before winning two of three against the Cincinnati Reds, and with a trio of their better pitchers — Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — on the mound for this series, Los Angeles should feel pretty confident about getting another series win, although an offense that has been merely average since the All-Star break and poor for most of July still needs to wake up. The Rays are in rough shape, with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, and they lost All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Díaz, and Chandler Simpson to injuries yesterday, though at least they brought in relievers Griffin Jax and Adrian Houser via trades.
After being a net-negative pitcher last season, Kershaw has bounced back somewhat in his age-37 season, recording two outs in the All-Star Game after being named a special addition to honor his legacy and pitching to a 3.62 ERA in 59.2 innings of work. His fastball rarely touches 90 miles per hour anymore, and he also has just an eighth-percentile strikeout rate, but he’s remained a pretty effective pitcher through his slider and his signature soap-bubble curve. Though he’s prone to giving up the occasional hard hit, Tampa Bay records them at a below-average rate, and he’s excellent at inducing ground balls.
Baseball Savant gives Kershaw a slight edge in the pitching matchup over Baz, who ranks in the middle tertile in every Statcast category except for fastball velocity and ground-ball rate, where he’s been a significantly above-average performer. But Baz is prone to the occasional blow-up: in a loss to the Chicago White Sox on July 21, he gave up eight runs in just four innings of work, and he’s allowed three or more runs in 12 of his 21 starts. Plus, he has fairly extreme home-road splits, allowing a pitiful 6.33 ERA at hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field. With the league’s highest fly-ball rate, the Dodgers are well-suited to mitigate his biggest strength.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+123)
This isn’t a perfect matchup, with Kershaw’s raw numbers significantly more impressive than his advanced stats, but with Aranda now out of the lineup (and possibly Díaz and Simpson as well) and Junior Caminero in poor form, I like Los Angeles to take this one.
Strong Lean: Alex Freeland 1+ Hits (-130)
The Dodgers called up their top infield prospect in advance of Wednesday’s game in Cincinnati, and he got on base three times, recording a walk, a hit-by-pitch, and a single. His out was a 100-MPH liner laced right at first base on the first pitch he saw as a pro.
