Full disclosure: I’m writing the article before the Orioles make 1,000 roster moves to re-fill their 26-man roster after yesterday’s trade deadline. I’m not even sure how many warm bodies are currently left on the MLB team, but I can tell you that the likes of Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Andrew Kittredge are no longer around. It was a true fire sale.
The Cubs were on the other end of the transaction spectrum. Sitting just a single game behind the Brewers for the lead in the NL Central, Chicago was a buyer on Thursday, bringing in reinforcements like Michael Soroka, Willi Castro and the aforementioned Kittredge. The Cubs are loading up for what should be a scintillating couple months of baseball in the midwest.
It’s all starts today. Let’s preview this matinee matchup at Wrigley Field with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Baltimore might have been a seller on Thursday, but that wasn’t the case at the deadline in 2024. That’s when the team picked up Trevor Rogers, who will toe the rubber on Friday. It was a deal that did not benefit the organization last season, with Rogers struggling to a staggering degree. However, the fruits of that trade are starting to come to light in 2025. It’s only a stretch of eight starts, yet Rogers looks like a whole new pitcher. The left-hander’s fastball velocity is back up and he’s used that increase in raw stuff to maintain a 1.49 ERA and a 2.85 FIP across 48.1 innings of work. Part of the overall success obviously has to do with an unsustainably low .183 opponent BABIP; but Rogers is also surrendering far fewer barrels than he did last year and he’s seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.7% to 11.7%. There’s some real reasons for optimism here.
Rogers isn’t the only thing moving in a positive direction for the Orioles, either. Prior to Wednesday’s narrow 9-8 loss to the Blue Jays, Baltimore had won five straight contests. The roster is getting healthy again, with Jordan Westburg, Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser and Adley Rutschman all back and off the IL. Is it too late for that to mean anything for the playoffs? Of course. Still, the Orioles managed a 112 wRC+ as a team in the month of July — tied with the Phillies for the sixth-best mark in baseball. The lineup’s potency should take a slight hit following the slew of deadline losses, yet it will also open up playing time for former top prospects like Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad. I honestly believe Baltimore will continue to be an above-average team when it comes to scoring runs over the final two months of the regular season.
That last paragraph should read as a warning to Cade Horton, though he’s also a former top prospect that’s been in quite the groove as of late. To wit, Horton’s pitched at least 5.2 scoreless innings in three of his last four starts. It’s a span of time where the 23-year-old has registered a 1.52 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Still, you’d like to see more strikeouts from the rookie RHP, as Horton enters the month of August ranking in just the 16th percentile of strikeout rate in the league (17.3%). Generally speaking, contact has not been Horton’s friend in 2025, as the right-hander also sits in the ninth percentile of baseball with an 11.4% opponent barrel rate. Not ideal!
Orioles vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Gunnar Henderson 2+ Total Bases (+125)
Henderson possesses a 156 wRC+ off RHPs in 2025, while Horton has surrendered a .290 average to opposing LHBs.
Strong Lean: Orioles ML (+128)
Baltimore’s bats are hot and Trevor Rogers has been pitching extremely well. There’s value in backing the road dog this afternoon.
