The Reds and Braves are facing off in Cincinnati on Thursday night. Below, I break down my prediction and pick for the game.
Andrew Abbott will be starting for the Reds, and Carlos Carrasco will take the mound for the Braves.
Reds vs. Braves prediction, preview
Andrew Abbott is having a sensational season for the Reds. He made his first-career All-Star team and currently ranks third in the MLB in ERA for pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown. That 2.09 ERA through 18 starts is phenomenal, but Abbott has been even better at home. When pitching in Cincinnati this season, he has a 1.93 ERA. It has been a disappointing season for this Braves lineup. They rank 24th in runs scored, 20th in OPS and 11th in strikeouts. Abbott should be able to shut them down in this game.
Carlos Carrasco is making his first start for the Braves this season. The 38-year-old veteran made eight appearances, including six starts, for the Yankees earlier this season and was acquired by the Braves just a couple of days ago. Things haven’t been going great for Carrasco this season, and he brings a 5.91 ERA into this game. In his six starts with New York, he only made it five innings in half of them and never made it longer than 5.1 innings. Getting any length out of Carrasco is out of the question, and the Atlanta bullpen has struggled this season as a whole, so there isn’t much cover for him either.
Reds vs. Braves pick, best bet
My best bet on this game is for the Reds to win the first five innings and for Michael Harris to have under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. The Reds have about as big of a starting pitching advantage as you will see in the MLB. Abbott has undoubtedly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and loves pitching at home in Cincinnati. He should be able to largely shut down this Atlanta lineup that will be without Ronald Acuna Jr. Meanwhile, Carrasco has been shaky all year, and in his first start with the Braves, he is likely to give up at least a couple of runs.
Michael Harris II is having a tough year at the plate. It has been a career-worst year at the plate by a wide margin, sporting a .231 batting average this season, after coming into this year with a career BA of .285. He has been even worse against left-handed pitching, with a .210 batting average against lefties this year. Abbott should completely shut Harris down, and with the Braves struggling to score runs, he should stay under this combined prop number.
