The Sun host the Liberty on Friday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by 11.5 points and this game carries a total of O/U 166.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Sun and the Liberty and give a pick for the game.
Sun vs. Liberty preview, prediction
The Liberty and Sun are opposite teams in the standings this season. New York leads the Eastern Conference with a 17-9 record, while Connecticut is dead last with a 4-21 record. In terms of net rating, the Liberty rank second in the league and the Sun are dead last, again. Friday will be the second time these clubs have gone head-to-head this season and in the first matchup, New York embarrassed Connecticut, 100-52.
However, this time around, the Liberty have lost three games in a row, which is a result of Breanna Stewart (knee) being injured. The two-time MVP currently doesn’t have a timetable for a return and while New York’s offense has stayed afloat with Stewart sidelined thanks to Sabrina Ionescu’s heroics, the defense has been pitiful.
With the 30-year-old out for essentially the last three games, New York has allowed 97.7 PPG. Its defensive rating has moved from 98.7 with Stewart on the court to an ugly 107.6 without her this season. For reference, this would be the third-worst defensive rating in the WNBA if it were the Liberty’s average for the season.
Ionescu will continue to put up big numbers with an expanded role sans Stewart –– she is coming off a 31-point outing vs. the Lynx –– but New York’s defense should continue to be a mess Friday, even against this Sun’s offense that ranks dead last in rating this season.
While it has been a terrible season for Connecticut, the club is at full strength right now, with Marina Mabrey (knee) returning three games ago after missing nine straight. The guard is averaging 14.3 PPG this season and three of the Sun’s four wins this season have come with Mabrey active, including a rare, but impressive 31-point blowout over the Valkyries this past Sunday.
Sun vs. Liberty pick, best bet
The Liberty should snap the three-game losing streak against the lowly Sun, but a blowout is unlikely given New York’s defensive woes with Stewart sidelined. Connecticut is an okay 12-13 ATS this season and has a strong chance to cover this 11.5-point spread at home.
However, the much stronger bet is backing this game to go over it’s 166.5-point total. With Stewart basically out for the last three games, Liberty games have produced a whopping 189 PPG and for the over this season, New York is 15-11 and Connecticut is 13-11-1.
