Wednesdays and Sundays are great for baseball action because series finales are usually spread out throughout the day. Several midday games are already over, and the last game of the day, between the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics, won’t end until 1 a.m. ET.
So while several contests will have already concluded, six more games will start after the majority of people are home from work. Here are my three favorite starting pitcher prop bets for the six-game late slate at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Will Warren O15.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
The New York Yankees have been one of the most active teams ahead of tomorrow’s trade deadline, making four deals so far, and surprisingly, none of them have addressed a bullpen that has posted just a 4.25 ERA this season, the 10th-worst mark in baseball. That bullpen has been stretched already in the current series against the Tampa Bay Rays, as it was needed for 4.2 innings on Monday when Cam Schittler managed just 13 outs, and though Max Fried provided it with a bit of respite yesterday, the Yankees will need to save some arms for tomorrow, when the struggling Marcus Stroman will start.
Although Warren will only be on four days’ rest, he’s shown some longevity in those starts, recording more than 15 outs four times in 11 starts, including three of his last five. He’s also reached that number in three of his last four starts overall, and in the one he didn’t, it was because he struggled mightily, giving up five runs and walking a trio of batters against the Atlanta Braves. With the Rays owning the league’s 11th-worst OPS since the All-Star break, generally making soft contact, and walking at a below-average clip, Warren should fare better tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi to Record a Win (+160)
After a cold stretch to open the second half of their season, the Los Angeles Angels have been pretty hot as of late, winning four of their last five games against some solid opposition in the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers, both ahead of them in the AL Wild Card race. Unfortunately for the Angels, they’re about to run into a buzzsaw tonight in Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed more than two earned runs just twice this season and sports a 1.50 ERA, which would lead the league if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. Eovaldi ranks above the league median in every Statcast category except fastball velocity, which he compensates for with above-average horizontal movement.
This doesn’t even have much to do with Los Angeles, which has already slapped losses to the registers of All-Star Ranger Suárez and perennial Cy Young candidate Jacob deGrom in the first two weeks of the opening half. Texas’ inept offense for most of the season has at least been in the middle tertile since the All-Star break, so it’s starting to get back in form, and José Soriano has been a little worse in his starts on four days’ rest than on five or more. The Rangers tend to hit the ball pretty hard, so Soriano’s tendency to give up hard hits plays right into their strengths.
Jeffrey Springs Race to 3 Strikeouts (+115)
Any time you can get the home pitcher in the race to three strikeouts at plus money, it’s typically worth the bet, given that Springs will have the first opportunity to rack up K’s in every inning. The southpaw, who has been involved in trade rumors for the last several months ahead of tomorrow’s deadline, is more of a finesse pitcher than a power pitcher, with just a 26th-percentile strikeout rate, but with a league-average whiff rate, a 3.51 ERA and 4.6 strikeouts per game in his last 10 games, he has the tools to be effective. The Seattle Mariners’ Bryan Woo has a 65th-percentile strikeout rate overall but has recorded six or fewer in each of his past three games.
Plus, the Mariners’ offense has been ice-cold since the All-Star break, with the league’s lowest OPS and the fourth-most strikeouts across that span. They also have a higher strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, as well as their highest strikeout rate in the game’s first three innings, so while Springs tends to get better as the game goes on, that should be offset in part by Seattle’s early-game woes. Plus, the Athletics’ offense, though strikeout-prone overall, has been humming since the midsummer classic.
