Ahead of tomorrow’s MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers still haven’t made a move for a relief pitcher despite a bullpen that ranks 23rd in the league in ERA, the most glaring weakness in their quest to win back-to-back World Series. Still, bullpen help or not, Los Angeles will go for a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds at 7:10 p.m. ET tonight before an off day tomorrow.
Shohei Ohtani will start for the Dodgers and likely pitch four innings as the team shifts to a six-man rotation, and Nick Martinez will oppose him for Cincinnati.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds prediction, preview
Los Angeles’ icy offense has finally woken up a little this series, scoring a solid five runs in each game, and the bullpen has done just enough to get a pair of wins. While the relievers nearly blew Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s gem on Monday, loading the bases in the ninth with a three-run lead in the ninth, Jack Dreyer came in for a three-pitch save. The bullpen then pitched five scoreless innings last night after Tyler Glasnow had an ineffective four-inning appearance. No Red has had a multi-hit game yet, but Cincinnati can be encouraged that both Chase Burns and Nick Lodolo turned in decent performances on the mound before its bullpen imploded.
The Dodgers will have to rely on their relief corps heavily tonight with Ohtani limited to just four innings, but at least they can be pretty assured that those innings will be effective. Ohtani has a 1.50 ERA in 12.0 innings this season and settled down nicely after Byron Buxton’s leadoff bomb in his latest start. He’d rank well above the median in every Statcast category except ground ball rate if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, and his four-seamer regularly tops 100 miles per hour in addition to coming out with the highest spin rate of his career. Justin Wrobleski, who last pitched Sunday in Boston, is a candidate to pick up the fifth and sixth innings, and he’s had a 2.67 ERA in his last 27 innings.
Los Angeles stands a decent chance of getting to Martinez, whose ERA has ballooned to 4.69, the highest that he’s recorded in his second stint in the majors after four seasons in Japan. The 34-year-old has conceded only two runs in each of his last three starts and picked up wins in all three, but the one before that was a proper blow-up, as he conceded 10 runs in five innings against the Miami Marlins in a defeat. While the soft-throwing righty excels at avoiding hard contact, the Dodgers rank in the league’s top seven in all power categories and have a fairly disciplined approach at the plate, so they should draw plenty of walks.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani 5+ Strikeouts (+100)
While Ohtani’s season high is four strikeouts, he achieved that in just three innings. Pitching an extra inning, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he got an extra strikeout against a team with the ninth-highest strikeout rate in baseball.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani 2+ Strikeouts (Batter) (+160)
Admittedly, I’m going for this mostly because having a two-way player is a rare opportunity to include both a pitching and hitting strikeout prop, but Ohtani’s one weakness as a hitter is his tendency to strike out. He struck out four times yesterday. Ohtani has a higher strikeout rate against finesse pitchers like Martinez than power pitchers.
