Ahead of tomorrow’s MLB trade deadline, the San Francisco Giants will be one of the teams to watch. Although they looked to be contenders for most of the season, a five-game losing streak has left them 54-54, nine games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West and five games behind the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card spot. At 3:45 p.m. ET, they’ll hope to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Logan Webb will take the mound for the hosts this afternoon, while the Pirates will start Mike Burrows.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants prediction, preview
Pittsburgh has launched late rallies in both games so far this series, managing to get to a bullpen that, for most of the season, has been among the league’s best units (with a 3.26 ERA, the Giants currently rank second). On Monday, franchise legend Andrew McCutchen hit a two-run seventh-inning shot to give the Pirates a 6-4 lead they wouldn’t relinquish, and last night, they managed four hits in the eighth inning. Since the All-Star break, Pittsburgh has had one of the league’s best pitching staffs and one of its worst offenses while San Francisco has had a poor pitching staff and an average offense.
Thankfully for the Giants, Webb is a much better pitcher than Carson Whisenhunt and Justin Verlander, garnering Cy Young Award votes in 2022 and 2023 and making All-Star appearances in each of the last two seasons. The sinkerballer doesn’t throw very hard but expectedly forces plenty of ground balls and he has exceptional control, leading the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2023. He does rank in just the 39th percentile in average exit velocity, but the soft-hitting Pirates aren’t well-suited to capitalize on that. In theory, Pittsburgh is a good opponent for a desperately-needed rebound: he’s given up 25 hits and 16 runs in his last 15.1 innings of work.
Still, while Burrows isn’t Paul Skenes, he’s not bad either. The 25-year-old rookie has been downright Skenes-esque in his last two games, throwing 11 innings of two-run ball, and while he’s still prone to the occasional blow-up — a 1.1-inning, six-run effort on July 12 certainly qualifies as that — he’s been roughly Webb’s level overall since the start of June. His game is somewhat different from Webb’s, as he throws plus-velocity four-seam fastballs with a plurality of pitches and is below-average at inducing grounders, but like Webb, he has an elite changeup. The major cause for concern here is that he has below-average chase and walk rates, and San Francisco has an incredibly patient approach at the plate.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+176)
In a small sample size, form isn’t everything, but with the Giants in desperate need of tomorrow’s rest day, this game is far closer to a tossup than a likely San Francisco victory, especially since Burrows has been better than Webb as of late.
Strong Lean: San Francisco Giants O0.5 Double Plays Turned (-120)
Webb allows a decent number of base runners, with a 30th-percentile expected batting average, and induces lots of ground balls. Plus, the Pirates hit grounders at the third-highest rate and have grounded into the sixth-most double plays this season.
