Three seasons ago, Sandy Alcantara was the best pitcher in the National League, winning the Cy Young Award unanimously after a season in which he went 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and struck out 207 batters. This season, he’s been baseball’s worst qualified pitcher and looks certain to be traded ahead of Thursday’s deadline. He’ll get likely his final start for the Miami Marlins tonight in the second game of their series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Opposing Alcantara at 7:45 p.m. ET will be another former Cy Young finalist, Sonny Gray, who has notched second- and third-place finishes in his career.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
The Cardinals took the series opener last night, 7-1, after the Marlins’ bats went cold without All-Star Kyle Stowers. Andre Pallante held them to just one hit in seven innings for his best outing of the season, and what was a two-run game when Edward Cabrera left the game quickly got out of hand when Josh Simpson gave up four runs and got only one out. Miami’s defense did the team no favors, with three errors, including a catcher’s interference, but Simpson was plain bad. Shortstop Masyn Winn had a three-hit performance, improving his second-half slash line to .405/.405/.500, and Alec Burleson went deep. The defeat was the second in as many games for the Marlins, who have had the third-best ERA in baseball since the All-Star break regardless.
There’s some reason to have faith in Alcantara, even given all of his struggles this season in his comeback from Tommy John surgery. The tall Dominican produced his finest outing of the season his last time out, lasting seven innings and conceding just four hits and one unearned run against the San Diego Padres last Wednesday. In the win over the Padres, he generated double-digit whiffs and induced 19 chases, and St. Louis chases at an above-average rate, so it’s a decent matchup for him in that regard. However, he’s yet to prove himself on the road this season, as he owns a 10.06 road ERA in eight starts, and the Cardinals very rarely whiff.
Prior to the All-Star break, I’d suggest that Gray had a massive edge in the pitching matchup. However, in his first two starts of the second half, he’s put up a pair of stinkers, combining for 16 runs (14 earned) and 22 hits in 8.1 innings as St. Louis has gone 1-1. His pitching ceiling is still incredibly high — he recorded a complete-game one-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians on June 27 and he leads the NL in strikeout-to-walk ratio — but he’s been more gettable in 2025 than in years past. He could bounce back tonight; though one of his main problems this season has been giving up barrels, Miami records them at the league’s 11th-lowest rate.
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 7 (-125)
While the Cardinals are a bad matchup for Alcantara, Gray isn’t exactly an elite pitcher at this stage of his career either. Seven runs is an extremely low bar when the pitchers in question are one of the league’s worst and one of its coldest.
Strong Lean: Over 1.5 Home Runs (-110)
Gray’s 31st-percentile barrel rate is a cause for concern, and Alcantara has also given up plenty of hard hits. Temperatures are expected to still be in the high 80s by the time the first pitch is thrown.
