While at least three of the MLB’s six divisions project to be competitive down the stretch, the NL Central has arguably baseball’s most intriguing battle at the top, with the Milwaukee Brewers leading the Chicago Cubs by one game after winning last night’s series opener against them. Two more games in Milwaukee, tonight and tomorrow night, remain, along with a five-game set in the Windy City next month, and the Brewers have a much tougher schedule overall.
For tonight’s 7:40 p.m. matchup, Quinn Priester will toe the rubber for the hosts against Chicago’s Colin Rea.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers prediction, preview
Last night, the Cubs jumped to a 3-0 lead behind a brutal first inning for 23-year-old pitching phenom Jacob Misiorowski, in which the controversial All-Star committed both a wild pitch and a throwing error. But Milwaukee fought back with four of its own in the bottom of the third inning, and Chicago couldn’t get much going for the rest of the game, with Misiorowski settling down for three perfect innings before turning it over to the Brewers’ above-average bullpen. Since the All-Star break, Milwaukee has gone 7-3 with a below-average offense and elite pitching, while the Cubs have paired a top-three offense with an inept staff.
Priester wins the pitching matchup here. Since a horrible two-start stretch at the start of May in which Priester allowed 12 runs in 9.1 innings of work, he has pitched at an All-Star level, posting a 2.53 ERA and 69:18 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 78.1 innings while leading his team to 11 wins in 14 starts. Thanks to his reliance on his sinker, he forces grounders at a 98th-percentile rate, which also allows him to avoid barrels despite opponents recording a 90.4-MPH average exit velocity against him. The Cubs, for all of their offensive talent, actually have a below-median average exit velocity, so it’s possible Priester will be able to keep them in check. They do hit ground balls at the second-lowest rate, so it’ll be a battle of strength against strength.
Rea, who pitched for the Brewers in each of the past two seasons, is a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter, as he sports a 4.06 ERA, 4.96 FIP, and 0.1 WAR. After a four-start stretch in which he pitched to a 1.90 ERA, he regressed closer to his FIP last Wednesday, conceding six runs (five earned) and six hits in five innings of work against the slumping Kansas City Royals. Rea ranks above the median in just two Statcast categories — walk rate and extension — and he’s in the bottom quintile in expected ERA, expected batting average, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and barrel rate. Milwaukee should be well-suited to take advantage of Rea’s weaknesses; though it has the league’s lowest barrel rate, it whiffs and strikes out infrequently.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8 (-120)
Though the Brewers have had hot pitching since the All-Star break, this Chicago offense is very good and isn’t the most natural matchup for Priester. Plus, Milwaukee should feel confident facing off against Rea.
Strong Lean: Quinn Priester O16.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
Priester has recorded 18 or more outs in each of his last three starts, four of his last five, and six of his last eight, and he’ll be on five days’ rest. The Brewers’ bullpen got a lot of use yesterday, thanks to Misiorowski’s innings restriction.
