Welcome to MLB trade deadline baseball, where impending deals can change lineups in a hurry as contenders and sellers alike gear up for the stretch run. In advance of Thursday’s deadline, uncertainty is the name of the game; basically the Minnesota Twins’ entire pitching corps is available as part of tonight’s featured DFS contest in case Minnesota deals Joe Ryan ($10,200).
As a result of the deadline-imposed uncertainty, I’ll stay away from Ryan, though I think he’d be a decent play against a Boston Red Sox offense that has had the league’s fourth-worst OPS since the All-Star break. Here are two other pitchers, three infielders, and three outfielders you should be targeting for tonight’s baseball action.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $222K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, $9,200 – The Dodgers will almost certainly pursue relief pitching help this week, but with their litany of starting pitchers — including Blake Snell and, possibly, Roki Sasaki — nearing returns before the end of the season, Glasnow could either be in the playoff bullpen or relegate one of Los Angeles’ current starters to a relief role. He’s been strong this month since making his return from a shoulder injury, recording more than 18 FPTS in each start and striking out 12 Twins (35.35 FPTS) last Wednesday. The Reds have had the league’s eighth-worst offense since the All-Star break and the fourth-worst in July overall.
Value
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $7,200 – The future Hall of Famer has looked like a shell of himself in his age-42 season, but for his DFS salary, producing two 17-plus-FPT performances in his last three games isn’t bad. In his most recent outing, Verlander allowed just one hit across five scoreless innings against the Atlanta Braves (17.05 FPTS), and though he allowed five walks, he’s had roughly league-average control this season and I’d expect him to bounce back. The Pirates have posted the league’s worst OPS overall, on the road, at night, and in July, so Verlander should still have enough tools to shut them down.
INFIELDER
Stud
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners at Athletics, $6,400 – Following the flexor strain that sent Aaron Judge ($6,000) to the IL, Raleigh is now the betting favorite to be named AL MVP, and he’s in good form, having hit a pair of homers in his last three games (9 FPTS per game since the All-Star break). Plus, all the splits line up in Raleigh’s favor: he’s averaging 11.7 FPTS per game on the road and only 9.9 at home, and he’s facing a favorable pitcher in the Athletics’ Luis Severino ($6,300) who’s pitched to a putrid 6.68 ERA at Sutter Health Park, one of the league’s more hitter-friendly venues. Severino likes to throw down and in to lefties, and Raleigh has actually posted his highest run value on pitches in that zone.
Stud
CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals at Houston Astros, $5,200 – Abrams has been a bit of a boom-or-bust player, recording 40 FPTS on Sunday with a two-for-three, one-homer, three-steal performance and following it up with just two FPTS on Monday. But overall, his numbers since the All-Star break are pretty good (8.7 FPTS per game) and his DFS salary is lower than it has been for most of the month. Abrams has averaged 11.8 FPTS per game on the road and posted an .817 OPS against righties. I don’t have much faith in Jason Alexander ($6,800), who gave up 11 hits and five runs in six innings (1.7 FPTS) against the Athletics last Thursday and will likely return to the minors soon.
Value
Chase Meidroth, Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $3,200 – I’m done fading the White Sox after they improved their second-half record to 7-3 with a 6-2 win last night over Philadelphia and Cristopher Sánchez. The rookie, who celebrated his 24th birthday last Wednesday, has been solid since the showcase, slashing .311/.326/.489 (8.3 FPTS per game). He’s also averaged 1.1 more FPTS per game at Rate Field than on the road and recorded an OPS 55 points higher against lefties. If Chicago can get to Sánchez, it can get to Jesús Luzardo ($9,500), who has conceded four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts after starting his season on a Cy Young-level run.
OUTFIELDER
Stud
Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $5,500 – The 2019 NL MVP has had an excellent July, posting a .325/.349/.663 slash line this month (11.1 FPTS per game), and he’s already hit three homers since the All-Star break. As a lefty, he’s one of the biggest beneficiaries of playing at Yankee Stadium, averaging 9.9 FPTS per game at home and just 7.5 on the road, and in a sizzling evening in the Bronx, the ball will travel. Joe Boyle ($6,500) has had an extremely solid season despite limited innings, but his 91.4-MPH average exit velocity and .114 batting average on balls in play suggest that his 1.42 ERA is extremely unsustainable.
Stud
Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, $4,100 – It doesn’t matter who Minnesota’s starter is; I trust Anthony to get the job done. The über-talented southpaw has slashed .313/.476/.500 (7.9 FPTS per game) since the All-Star break and has hit the double-digit mark in each of his past three games. Baseball’s No. 1 prospect has been seeing the ball extremely well, posting an average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, chase percentage, and walk percentage that would all rank among the league’s top decile if he’d recorded enough plate appearances to qualify. The Twins’ staff has posted a 5.43 ERA since June 5, so regardless, Anthony’s prospects are high.
Value
Randal Grichuk, Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves, $3,400 – This one is a battle between two players who were moved at the trade deadline: Grichuk and Braves starter Erick Fedde ($6,000). The utility outfielder made a strong impression in his second game with the Royals last night, smacking a solo shot and recording an additional single (17 FPTS) in the 10-7 defeat, and he should continue to be in the everyday lineup as long as struggling top prospect Jac Caglianone ($2,800) remains on the IL. Speaking of struggling, Fedde has recorded negative FPTS in four of his last five starts, pitching to a putrid 13.25 ERA across that span, so Atlanta’s decision to deal for him remains befuddling.
