This is the second game of a four-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Joe Boyle is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay while Max Fried is slated to start for New York.
Rays at Yankees prediction, preview
Joe Boyle has made one start this season and pitched 19 innings. Last season with Oakland, Boyle made 10 starts and, in 47.2 innings, posted a 24.8% strikeout rate. Excellent! Unfortunately, the walk rate was 17.7%—the exact opposite of excellent. He was very good at keeping the ball in the yard, and the swinging strike rate was 10.8%, helped by the 98 mph fastball. In 19 innings this season, the strikeout rate is 25.7%, and the walk rate is down to 8.6%.
The swinging strike rate is 12.2%, but the chase rate is a paltry 19.7%. MLB batters have had difficulty squaring him up, as the barrel rate is 4.4% this season and was 4% last season. The BABIP is only .114, so that 1.42 ERA isn’t real. The FIP is much higher at 2.98, but still an excellent number. The sample size has been small, though.
Boyle’s only start was back in April, when he went five innings. Since then, he’s pitched five, four, two, and three innings. This will be his first time facing New York this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the eighth-highest rate while having the best ISO. Their wOBA is second-best in MLB.
Max Fried has been excellent in his first year with the Yankees. Those short porches? Not a problem, as Fried has only allowed nine home runs this season, with just two of those coming at Yankee Stadium. He’s averaging a career-best 95.7 mph on the fastball and continuing to do what he does best—induce ground balls. The ground ball rate is 51.3%. He’s also limiting hard contact: the average exit velocity is 87.5 mph, the barrel rate is 6.4%, and the hard-hit rate is 37%. In conclusion, Fried is chef’s kiss.
Fried has been slightly better at home, but it’s close enough to consider him site-neutral. Interestingly, six of the nine home runs have come off the bats of lefties. However, the K-BB% is 5.7% higher against lefties than righties.
In 21 starts, Fried has gone at least six innings 14 times. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only three times. Fried faced Tampa Bay twice, on April 20 and May 2. The first meeting was in Tampa Bay, where Fried went 7.2 innings, struck out two, walked two, and did not allow an earned run on two hits. In New York, Fried went seven innings, struck out six, walked two, and did not allow an earned run on one hit.
The Rays have struck out at the 15th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while ranking 21st in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 21st as well.
As for the bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 14th-lowest FIP, while New York has the 21st-lowest.
Rays at Yankees pick, best bet
Although Fried has allowed four, three, three and four earned runs in his four most recent outings, I think he gets back to his dominant ways against the Rays. I think the Yankees score some runs, but just enough to get Fried the win, while keeping the under intact.
