As the MLB trade deadline approaches on Thursday, the San Francisco Giants are a team to watch. Seven games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West and three games adrift of the Wild Card, the Giants could be buyers, but given their poor recent form, there’s also reason to believe that they could sell. Their opponents this week, the Pittsburgh Pirates, will almost certainly be sellers.
The series will open with a 9:45 p.m. ET clash in San Francisco. The Giants will start Carson Whisenhunt in his MLB debut, and Mitch Keller will crest the hill for the Pirates.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants prediction, preview
After getting swept at home by the New York Mets, San Francisco is now just 2-7 since the All-Star break. Thanks to a pair of nine-run performances against the injury-decimated Atlanta Braves’ pitching staff, the Giants have the league’s sixth-best OPS across that span, but scoring five runs total across their last three games can’t be encouraging, and the typically-elite pitching staff’s 5.26 ERA is especially ugly. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is hot, winning five of its last six games, though it faced the slumping Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Still, the Pirates have the fourth-worst OPS in the second half and won’t have Paul Skenes on the mound to compensate.
But while Keller is no Skenes, he is a pretty solid pitcher, making an All-Star appearance two years ago and posting a career-best 3.53 ERA so far in 2025. He’s strung together eight solid starts in a row, recording a 2.59 ERA over that span without giving up more than three earned runs in any, and he’s deserved to be better than 4-10 on the season. Advanced numbers are extremely kind to him, considering him a 92nd-percentile pitcher this season despite struggling to induce either chases or whiffs because he’s produced so much soft contact with his fastball. San Francisco is extremely disciplined at the plate, averaging the second-most pitches per plate appearance, but it tends to make rather soft contact.
Whisenhunt is the Giants’ second-ranked prospect and has an 8-5 record and a 4.42 ERA this season with Triple-A Sacramento, an improvement over the 5.42 mark he posted last season at that level. In particular, the southpaw is known for having among the best changeups at the minor-league level, with extremely high chase and whiff rates, so San Francisco is hoping that carries over against a Pittsburgh team that has the eighth-lowest chase rate but the 11th-highest whiff rate. Still, even as the league’s worst team against lefties, it should have enough offensive juice to mash the breaking stuff that hasn’t fooled even Triple-A opposition.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+108)
Judging rookies in their first-ever MLB starts is always a difficult proposition, but with the Pirates starting a very solid pitcher in Keller and Whisenhunt demonstrating plenty of room for improvement in the minors, I lean towards Pittsburgh at plus-money.
Strong Lean: Pittsburgh Pirates Hits – 1st Inning Over 0.5 (-130)
The Pirates haven’t had a league-average OPS in any inning, but they’ve had their second-highest OPS in the first. Their second and third hitters, Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds, are both better against lefties than righties, and I expect Whisenhunt to be nervous.
