With the MLB’s trade deadline approaching on Thursday, both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins will be among the teams to watch entering their three-game series, which begins tonight with a 7:45 p.m. ET clash in St. Louis. The Cardinals have already made a move, dealing struggling starter Erick Fedde to the Atlanta Braves, while the Marlins are expected to part ways with former Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara, who remains in line to start tomorrow.
Tonight, Miami will have Edward Cabrera crest the hill, while Andre Pallante will start for St. Louis.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
The Cardinals haven’t been in a great run of form since the All-Star break, getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks, losing a three-game set to the Colorado Rockies, and splitting a four-game series with the San Diego Padres. St. Louis’ pitching has been the main issue: through the first 10 games of the second half, the Cardinals have allowed 57 runs, the third-most of any team, and their offense (ninth-to-last in OPS) hasn’t been good enough to make up for it. The Marlins are much hotter, with a 6-3 record since the All-Star break, including the 10th-best OPS and third-best ERA across that span, and are 25-13 in their last 38 games.
Even once Alcantara is dealt, Miami will still have a six-foot-five, flamethrower Dominican right-hander taking the mound every five days, thanks to Cabrera. The 27-year-old has taken a huge leap in his fifth season, giving up three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his appearances since the start of May and pitching to a 2.47 ERA (2.99 FIP) across that span. Though he’s been prone to giving up the occasional hard hit, ranking in the 23rd percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 38th percentile in average exit velocity, there’s no reason to doubt whether his recent form is sustainable. He’s allowed a microscopic .176 expected wOBA on his signature curve, which he’s only started to throw more as the season goes on.
Pallante, perhaps more than anyone else on St. Louis’ staff, desperately needs a good start. The 26-year-old has had a miserable last three starts, combining for 15.2 innings, 25 hits, 18 runs (17 earned), and a 9.77 ERA, taking the loss in all three, and though he’s gotten largely unlucky over that span with a 4.56 FIP, the Cardinals have been the league’s sixth-worst fielding team this season. Pallante does force grounders at a 98th-percentile rate, thanks to a four-seamer that drops nearly six inches more than average, and Miami has hit grounders at the league’s sixth-highest rate, but they’ve had an above-average OPS on those grounders.
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins Moneyline (-106)
Though St. Louis has been rather good at home this season, posting a 31-22 record at Busch Stadium, it isn’t in nearly as good form as the Marlins, who have a winning record on the road. Cabrera has a distinct pitching edge over Pallante.
Strong Lean: Andre Pallante Race to 3 Strikeouts (+115)
The home pitcher being an underdog to reach three strikeouts first is extremely rare, given that the road team bats first in every inning, and while Pallante has a fourth-percentile strikeout rate and Cabrera has a 69th-percentile rate one, the Cardinals strike out even less frequently than Miami does. Plus, the Marlins’ offense tends to be quieter earlier in the game and better later.
