The Wings are hosting the Liberty on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by eight points and this game carries a total of 172.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Wings and the Liberty and give a pick for the game.
Wings vs. Liberty preview, prediction
The Liberty and Wings have had polar opposite seasons. New York sits atop the Eastern Conference at 17-7 and ranks second in the WNBA in net rating, while Dallas is last in the Western Conference at 7-19 and ranks third-to-last in net rating.
This will be the first time these clubs have faced each other this season and the Liberty have the advantage in rest on Monday, as the club hasn’t played since this past Saturday, while the Wings just competed last night and lost to the Aces by 26 points.
However, rookie sensation Paige Bueckers missed this game for rest purposes. The UConn product will return Monday, and Bueckers has certainly lived up to the hype this season. The No.1 pick from this past WNBA Draft is leading Dallas with 18.1 points and 5.6 assists per game, while shooting 45% from the field. Bueckers returning will obviously be a huge boost for the Wings, but the rest of the team is playing their second game in two nights and facing a more rested Liberty club will be a challenging test for Dallas.
New York is led by Sabrina Ionescu, who is averaging a career-high 19.3 PPG this season. The sharpshooter has been on fire, scoring 29 and 30 points in her last two starts, and Ionescu will need to keep her foot on the gas Monday, as the Liberty will be without two-time MVP Breanna Stewart (leg) for the first time this season.
The forward is having another outstanding season, averaging 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. With Stewart only available for three minutes Saturday vs. the Sparks, New York lost to Los Angeles 101-99. The veteran being out is a big loss for the Liberty, particularly on the defensive end, but the team was 2-0 with Stewart inactive last season. New York still is the superior club over Dallas even with Stewart missing.
Wings vs. Liberty pick, best bet
The Liberty should overcome Stewart’s absence and defeat the Wings on Monday. That being said, New York is only 5-4 on the road and 11-12-1 ATS this season, so backing the Liberty at -8 does feel risky.
Instead, backing this game to go over it’s 172.5-point total is the better wager. Both these clubs rank top-four in pace this season, and both clubs should struggle defensively Monday. Dallas ranks 10th in defensive rating and this is the second leg of a back-to-back set for the club, whereas New York’s defensive rating has slipped to 103.5 with Stewart off the floor this season, which would be the fourth-worst defensive rating in the WNBA if it was the Liberty’s average for 2025. With Stewart only available for three minutes this past Saturday vs. the Sparks, this contest produced a huge 200 points.
New York is 13-11 and Dallas is 14-12 for the over this season, and Monday’s matchup between these two clubs has shootout written all over it.
