Fresh starts and series and slates on this late-July Monday! A few divisional rivalry series kick off, and the wild card hunts are heating up. In a short time, I’ll link extended previews/predictions up for the Twins vs. Red Sox, Brewers vs. Cubs, Padres vs. Mets, and Athletics vs. Mariners games tonight. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets today surrounding my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Jacob DeGrom 9+ total strikeouts (+220)
The Rangers’ ace is dealing, boasting a 10-2 record with a 2.28 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 2025. DeGrom’s filthy arsenal has yielded an xwOBA of just .281, a testament to how tough he’s been to square up. Facing an Angels lineup that whiffs at the 2nd-highest rate in MLB (25.8% K-rate), deGrom is primed to pile up Ks. Los Angeles has struggled to make contact all year, and that won’t improve against deGrom’s upper-90s heat and biting slider (40%+ whiff rate). The four-time strikeout champ is averaging well over 10 K/9, and he’s eclipsed the 8.5 mark in three of his last four outings. He’s in peak form, coming off a nine-strikeout gem, and now gets a free-swinging opponent that chased 11 times against him in their last meeting. No hedging here—deGrom fans double-digits.
With the Angels’ lineup featuring multiple high-K bats, expect deGrom to mow through hitters. His 38% strikeout rate vs righties plays perfectly against L.A.’s right-handed power, and even lefty bats like Walsh are vulnerable to his changeup. Advanced metrics back the over: deGrom’s 17% swinging-strike rate and the Angels’ MLB-worst 1,024 team strikeouts scream a strikeout fest. In a high-energy home start, deGrom will dominate from the jump. 9+ Ks cashes with room to spare.
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+205)
Schwarber is on a mission at the plate, launching 36 home runs to date (fourth-most in MLB). The Phillies’ slugger is scorching hot—he belted two homers just three days ago, including a 115 mph rocket for his 1,000th hit. Now he draws White Sox righty Davis Martin, a pitcher with deceiving surface stats (3.89 ERA) but glaring red flags underneath. Martin’s hard-hit rate sits at 45.8% with a bloated .366 xwOBA against, meaning hitters are barreling him up consistently. He’s a pitch-to-contact arm (5.9 K/9) that struggles to miss bats, exactly the type Schwarber feasts on.
In a hitter’s park on a warm evening, the lefty masher should get a cookie to crush. Martin has surrendered nine homers in just 85.2 innings, and Schwarber’s .962 OPS ranks top-five in MLB. With a 40% fly-ball rate and elite 18% barrel rate, Schwarber is built to take Martin deep. Recent form? Try four homers in the last week, plus the All-Star Game MVP with a trio of bombs. He’s seeing beach balls right now. Against a low-velo, hittable fastball (opponents slugging .417 off Martin’s four-seamer), Schwarber’s thunderous swing should make Chicago pay.
Rockies team total u3.5 total runs (-140)
Colorado’s offense has been abysmal away from Coors Field, and this matchup in Cleveland sets up another dud. The Rockies average only 3.61 runs per game (28th in MLB), and that was before trading away veterans at the deadline. Now they face Guardians rookie Slade Cecconi, who quietly sports a solid 3.76 ERA over 12 starts. Cecconi isn’t a big-name, but he’s thrived by limiting hard contact—his .237 opponent average and 1.23 WHIP show consistency. More importantly, Colorado’s hitters simply can’t adjust outside of altitude. They strike out at an MLB-high 26.4% clip and own a feeble .676 OPS on the road.
Cleveland’s elite bullpen (ranked first entering 2025) slams the door on late runs—the Guardians’ relief corps posted a ridiculous 2.57 ERA last year and remains stacked. That means even if Cecconi only goes five innings, Colorado won’t sniff many scoring chances after. The Guardians are fully locked in defensively and will unleash Emmanuel Clase and company to secure the under. The Rockies have scored two or fewer in seven of their last 10 road games, regularly stranding runners and chasing pitches. Facing a fresh arm they’ve never seen only tilts things further in our favor. Back Colorado to stay under 3.5 runs with confidence.
