The Mets are fired up and firmly in control as they seek a statement sweep on Sunday Night Baseball. New York (61-44) has overwhelmed San Francisco (54-51) in the first two games, winning 5-0 and 2-1, and all signs point to another Mets triumph—likely by a bigger gap. Why? The Mets have their ace on the mound and the Giants are scrambling with a bullpen‑game patchwork. This Red Sox fan sure saw Rafael Devers’ performance at first base! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday night baseball game between the Giants and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Giants vs. Mets prediction, preview
Kodai Senga takes the mound for New York, and the right‑hander has been nothing short of sensational. Senga enters 7-3 with a minuscule 1.79 ERA, and he’s in the Cy Young conversation. Even a mid‑season hamstring tweak hasn’t slowed him—he’s yielded only five runs over his last four starts combined. Senga’s signature forkball and upper‑90s heater have generated a 27% strikeout rate and constant weak contact. He owns a career 2.60 ERA in 45 MLB starts, illustrating his consistent dominance. Simply put, when Senga pitches, the Mets expect to win. Look for him to toy with a struggling Giants lineup.
San Francisco has been shut out or held to one run in three of its last four games, highlighting an offense in a deep funk. In this series, the Giants have scored just two runs total in two games. Over the last month, they rank 25th in wOBA and 26th in ISO—no power, no spark. They’re also 22nd in wRC+ vs righties this season, confirming a season-long inability to solve quality RHP. With Senga’s darting forkball likely inducing flails, expect minimal scoring from San Francisco. Even if Senga is on a pitch count, the Mets bullpen (3.77 ERA) is reliable to bridge the gap. Lefty closer Edwin Díaz (22 saves) and his crew can lock down any late threat.
The Giants’ pitching situation, by contrast, is dicey. They’ll start Matt Gage, a 32-year‑old journeyman lefty making his first MLB start. Gage has only 9.2 innings on his 2025 ledger (all in relief). While he hasn’t allowed a run yet, those appearances were low-leverage; now he faces a loaded Mets lineup under pressure. San Francisco plans to piggyback Gage with Carson Seymour, a rookie with a 6.23 ERA in Triple-A—hardly comforting. The Giants do own a fantastic bullpen ERA (3.18, second‑best in MLB), but in the last two games even their top arms couldn’t keep New York entirely at bay. And asking the pen to cover nine innings is a huge ask, especially against a Mets offense ready to erupt.
Keep in mind, New York’s lineup has underperformed lately due to some bad luck—they have the seventh-lowest BABIP in MLB over the past 30 days. That suggests their hitters (Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, et al.) are due for a few more hits to fall in. Even without a massive output, the Mets have done enough each night, and now they could be poised for a bigger showing. One catalyst: Juan Soto, who joined the Mets via trade and brings a .421 OBP and elite bat. He’s been quiet in this series, but great players have a knack for prime time. Don’t be shocked if Soto and Alonso deliver clutch extra‑base knocks off the unfamiliar Gage/Seymour combo.
Mets vs. Giants pick, best bet
New York also has an intangible edge: confidence. They’ve won six straight games and are 8-0 in their last 8 as favorites vs NL West teams. Conversely, the Giants are reeling at home—they’ve dropped eight of their last nine day games after playing the previous day (though this is an evening contest, fatigue from consecutive losses lingers).
San Francisco has also failed to cover the run line in nine straight home games after a loss, meaning when they lose at Oracle, it’s often by multiple runs. All the data aligns: the Mets handle West Coast trips well, and they’ve beaten the Giants in six of the last 10 meetings including three straight. Manager Buck Showalter will have the Mets playing aggressively to secure the sweep and keep momentum atop the NL East.
Prediction: The Mets will assert their dominance early. Senga should mow through the Giants’ order, and the Mets bats will scratch out runs as soon as Gage shows any jitters. Even a low‑score game can see New York cover -1.5 if San Francisco barely scores. That’s exactly what we foresee. The Giants might not plate more than a run or two, while the Mets tack on insurance late. Something like Mets 5, Giants 2, cashing the run line as New York completes a convincing sweep on national TV.
Best bet: Mets -1.5 (+135) at Giants
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