After losing the series finale to the Baltimore Orioles yesterday, the Cleveland Guardians and once again perfectly in balance, as all things should be. The Guardians have hovered around .500 all season and are once again exactly at that mark, with a 51-51 record. Their opponent for this weekend’s series, the Kansas City Royals, are just behind that mark at 50-53.
The series will begin with an 8:10 p.m. clash tonight at Kauffman Stadium. Michael Wacha is set to start for the hosts, while the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals prediction, preview
After a 28-game stretch in which Cleveland went just 7-21 and posted a putrid .583 OPS, it must be pleased with the fact that it has gone 5-2 with an .807 OPS since the All-Star break. Contact king Steven Kwan managed the first multi-homer game of his career in yesterday’s defeat and has gotten on base multiple times in three of his last four games, and José Ramírez has posted a 1.258 OPS over his last 14 games. The Guardians should feel more confident going into this game than the Royals; though the home side took two of three off of the Chicago Cubs, that impressive series came on the heels of a 2-1 series loss to the mediocre Miami Marlins.
Kansas City’s attempt to bounce back will be spearheaded by the veteran Wacha, who has a solid 3.62 ERA this season despite just a 4-9 record. Wacha has strung together two excellent starts in a row, combining for 11 innings and giving up just two runs, although his 1.64 ERA across that span was far better than his 3.09 FIP figure. This season, the 34-year-old’s breaking and off-speed stuff has been just as good as ever, but his fastball has had just sixth-percentile run value and he’s only induced strikeouts at a 22nd-percentile clip. Thankfully for him, Cleveland has struck out an above-average rate and has made loads of weak contact, so he should be fine backed up by the league’s third-best defense.
Williams, like Wacha, has been in pretty good form, giving up just nine hits and four runs across 18 innings in his last three starts. The young fireballer is more volatile than Wacha, leading the league in walks, but he makes up for it with a 73rd-percentile whiff percentage, and he pairs his 97-MPH fastball with above-average breaking stuff. The 25-year-old couldn’t ask for a kinder matchup to minimize his weaknesses than the Royals, who have walked at the league’s lowest rate this season and, like the Guardians, have made some of the softest contact in the league. The last time he pitched in Kansas City, he gave up two runs in five innings on March 29.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-106)
With both teams having minus-odds on the Moneyline, this is about as much of a toss-up as it gets. But neither pitcher has a clear edge, Cleveland is the hotter team overall, and it has a slightly better record on the road (fittingly, 26-26) than the Royals do at home (24-26).
Strong Lean: Cleveland Guardians U0.5 Hits – 1st Inning (+120)
Wacha tends to start off the game hot, allowing just a .490 OPS and one earned run in the first inning this season, and while Kwan and Ramírez give the Guardians a pair of dangerous contact threats at the top of the lineup, they have a below-average first-inning OPS overall.
