This is the opener of a three-game series in Milwaukee between the Brewers and visiting Miami Marlins.
Cal Quantrill is scheduled to pitch for Miami while Freddy Peralta is slated to start for Milwaukee.
Marlins at Brewers prediction, preview
Cal Quantrill has a 5.24 ERA through 87.2 innings. He has experienced some bad luck, as the BABIP is .322 while the strand rate is 66.2%. As a result, the FIP is much lower at 4.23. Quantrill averages 93.5 mph on the fastball and has an 18.9% strikeout rate. The swinging strike rate is 8.7% while the chase rate is 28.2%. He’s allowed 12 home runs and has been getting hit fairly hard. The hard hit rate is 42.5% with a 10.6% barrel rate.
Quantrill has reverse splits as righties have crushed him this season. They are slashing .351/.389/.611 and have hit nine of the 12 home runs allowed. Quantrill has be slightly worse on the road, primarily due to eight of the 12 home runs allowed.
Quantrill has gone at least six innings only once, and that came in his most recent outing. He’s allowed more than three earned runs five times. Quantrill faced Milwaukee three starts ago, going 3.2 innings, striking out six, walking one and allowing two earned runs on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Brewers have struck out at the 20th-highest rate while having the 27th-best ISO. The wOBA is 22nd-best in MLB.
Freddy Peralta is sporting a 25.5% strikeout rate while averaging 94.4 mph on the fastball. The swinging strike rate is 12.2% while the chase rate is 29.6%. The 2.85 ERA is great, but he’s been fortunate with a .246 BABIP and 82.8% strand rate. The FIP is higher at 3.66, but that’s still very good. He’s only allowed 13 home runs on the season. Peralta has done a good job of limiting hard contact, something that he’s done throughout his career. The average exit velocity is 88.1 mph while the hard hit rate is 34.5%.
Peralta has been effective against both righties and lefties. Eight of the 13 home runs have come off the bat of righties. Peralta has been much better at home and 10 of the 13 home runs have been served up on the road.
Peralta has allowed more than three earned runs only twice and has failed to pitch at least five innings only once. This will be the first time facing Miami this season.
The Marlins have struck out at the 23rd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 18th in ISO. The wOBA is 14th-best.
As for bullpens, Miami has the 20th-lowest FIP while Milwaukee has the 11th-lowest.
Marlins at Brewers pick, best bet
I like Peralta at home a lot in this one. In addition, I do think Milwaukee scores some runs off Miami pitching without going bonkers.
