Even as temperatures rise around the world, this has been among the coldest summers in Northern California in several decades.
That malaise has evidently extended to the (Oakland/West Sacramento/Las Vegas) Athletics, who have been unable to get anything going offensively since the All-Star break. The Athletics have scored seven total runs over their last four games, and they’ll be hard-pressed to do better than that this week against a Houston Astros team that boasts one of the league’s best pitching staffs.
The four-game set will open tonight with an 8:10 p.m. ET clash at Daikin Park. The Athletics will start Luis Severino, while the Astros will counter with Jason Alexander.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Athletics at Houston Astros prediction, preview
This series matters a lot more for the hosts than it does for the Athletics; while the Athletics are 42-62, dead last in the division and virtually eliminated from playoff contention, Houston leads the Seattle Mariners by six games atop the division and can’t afford to slip up against its worst team. Unlike the Athletics, the Astros have been in good form, sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this week for their fourth straight win. In particular, Houston’s pitching staff has led the way, conceding three or fewer runs in each victory.
The Astros’ pitcher today should be familiar, given that Alexander made four relief appearances for the Athletics earlier in the season and was so bad that the team opted to release him. That decision came after he pitched 2.1 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 15 and conceded nine runs on seven hits and four walks. Though he’s mostly pitched in the minors in Houston, he’s offered nine innings for the big-league club, conceding just three runs (two earned) and picking up the win in his lone start. He predominantly relies on a sinker, which sits in the low 90s, so he tends to produce ground balls at a high rate, and the Astros have an above-average fielding unit. Still, I’d expect Joe Espada to pull the plug quickly if he shows signs of struggle, given the team’s strong bullpen.
Meanwhile, Severino has been better this season than his raw numbers indicate. Though he leads the American League in losses, earned runs, and hit batsmen, his expected 4.71 ERA is both better than his actual mark and better than Alexander’s, and he’s excelled at limiting hard contact even though he hasn’t missed many bats. The 31-year-old has been a victim of the hitter-friendly conditions at Sutter Health Park, posting a 6.68 ERA in 12 starts at home and just a 3.10 mark in nine starts on the road. While those splits are too extreme to be sustainable, it’s not unreasonable to expect a decent start against an offense that has been roughly league-average since the All-Star break and just sent one of its best hitters, Isaac Paredes, to the injured list.
Athletics at Houston Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Houston Astros Moneyline (-127)
Though Severino on the road is a better pitcher than Alexander, Houston is a much better overall team and can afford to pull Alexander more than the Athletics can afford to pull Severino. If the game is close by the time the bullpens get involved, the hosts will win.
Strong Lean: Over 9 (-102)
The Athletics have a terrible bullpen and the Astros have a terrible starting pitcher. Though the Athletics’ offense is cold, Daikin Park is a more hitter-friendly venue than each of the last two parks in which they have played.
