Two of the best (and most unlikely) teams in the American League will face off today in a possible ALCS preview as part of the featured four-game DFS slate on DraftKings. The Detroit Tigers, who lead the AL Central at 60-43, will host the 60-42 and AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays for a four-game series.
In this small but mighty slate, stars are at a premium, so getting value of out of players with cheaper DFS salaries is paramount. Here are my three favorite value options:
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st].
SP Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, $7,500
Darvish’s 13th MLB season isn’t off to a great start; the 38-year-old has a 6.07 ERA through three starts, failing to complete more than five innings in any start and giving up five hits twice (4.9 FPTS per game). Darvish also missed the first three months of the season in his right elbow that had him thinking he might have to retire, but with a fastball that still sits at 94 miles per hour and penchants for limiting hard hits and for inducing ground balls, he still has demonstrated flashes of his former greatness. Just last season, Darvish made 16 starts, pitching to a 3.31 ERA and averaging 15.86 FPTS per game despite an arsenal that featured a lower average velocity and average spin rate.
St. Louis has had a roughly average offense this season overall, ranking 15th in total OPS, 14th at home, 14th against right-handed pitchers, and 21st since the All-Star break, which should give Darvish a decent chance of posting his first quality start of the season. Though he has struggled to induce chases this season, the Cardinals have chased at a slightly above-average rate, and while they make contact frequently, San Diego has had one of the league’s more efficient defenses. Plus, they walk at a below-average rate, helping mitigate one of Darvish’s other weaknesses.
OF Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners, $3,900
Adell is a bit of a boom-or-bust player. He strikes out, walks, chases, and whiffs at above-average rates, but makes up for it with 99th-percentile swing speed and a 94th-percentile barrel rate. This inconsistency has manifested itself in his recent fantasy performances: two straight double-digit outings in the first two games after the All-Star break, followed by four performances of four or less. But advanced numbers indicate that he’s gotten extremely unlucky all season: his .285 expected batting average and .575 expected slugging percentage are both elite marks and far better than his actual .237/.309/.478 slash line.
Adell’s luck might be the exact opposite of Logan Evans ($7,000)‘. The Mariners right-hander has posted a solid 3.81 ERA this season, but his expected mark is 5.51 and he ranks in the bottom sextile in eight of 13 Statcast categories, and just about his only strength is not issuing walks. He has conceded at least one homer in six of his 10 starts, and 10 batted balls against him would’ve been homers at Angel Stadium. Evans has pitched to a 6.75 ERA on the road, and Adell has averaged 0.9 more FPTS per game at home.
3B/SS Mauricio Dubón, Houston Astros vs. Athletics, $3,300
The defensive-oriented Honduran isn’t necessarily the ideal fantasy player, since defensive value doesn’t count for anything in DFS, but at least he’s gotten on base in every single game since the All-Star break and should continue to be in the everyday lineup with Isaac Paredes ($3,600) the latest Astros infielder to hit the injured list. At the very least, he whiffs at an 87th-percentile rate and the Athletics have some of the league’s worst defensive metrics and should be even worse with center fielder Denzel Clarke ($2,500) now on the injured list.
More than anything, a bet on Dubón is a bet against Luis Severino ($6,000), who has been one of the league’s worst starting pitchers this season. The 31-year-old is highly unlikely to miss Dubón’s bat, given that he has a first-percentile whiff rate, and he also leads the American League with 11 losses, 21 total starts, 67 earned runs, and 11 hit batsmen. Plus, once Houston chases Severino from the game, it’ll get the chance to face the Athletics’ bullpen, which has posted the second-highest ERA in the league.
