Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home runs during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
It’s a light four-game evening slate in MLB, but here are my top three picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook to go deep.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Nick Kurtz 1+ Home Run (+230)
While I wasn’t expecting to see Nick Kurtz’s prop set quite this low, it’s justified with how well the rookie has been hitting in recent months. Heck, Kurtz was called-up in late April and didn’t hit his first MLB home run till May 13. Since that time, Kurtz not only ranks sixth in baseball in long balls (19), but he leads all qualified American League hitters in wRC+ (184) and ISO (.415). The former fourth-overall pick hasn’t just been good — he’s been one of the best power hitters in the world. Now he’ll get the opportunity to face-off with Jason Alexander, who has been re-called from Triple-A to start Thursday’s tilt for the Astros. In 86.2 career innings in the big leagues, Alexander possesses a putrid 14.4% strikeout rate and he’s surrendered 1.56 opponent home runs per nine. Seems like a soft matchup to me!
Taylor Ward 1+ Home Run (+425)
There are no shortage of home run threats in the Angels’ lineup, but let’s go focus on Taylor Ward, who has put together an .866 OPS and a .279 ISO since the beginning of May. Let’s not overlook Ward’s 85th percentile barrel rate, either (13.9%). Ward and the rest of Los Angeles’ bats are in a great spot to go deep on Thursday evening, as the club with square-off with the Mariners’ Logan Evans. The rookie RHP owns an ugly 5.51 xERA across 10 starts i 2025 and the largest reason for Evans’ struggles has been his inability to keep the ball in the yard — especially when pitching away from the comfy confines of T-Mobile Park. To wit, Evans is allowing opponents to slash .345/.385/.584 with a .410 wOBA on the road. That includes conceding 2.03 opponent home runs per nine. Yikes.
Matt Vierling 1+ Home Run (+700)
I might be overthinking this one. Spencer Torkelson (+275) has 21 long balls in 2025 and is 3-for-3 with a home run off Eric Lauer in his career. Maybe the simple answer is to just bet that prop. At the same time, Vierling’s odds are tempting. The 28-year-old has barely played this season due to injury and he’s yet to hit a homer in his 64 plate appearances. That said, Vierling has produced a .677 expected slugging percentage in his 23 PAs against LHPs, meaning the quality of contact within the split has been excellent. Vierling is also a .282 hitter off southpaws for his entire time at the MLB level, so it’s not like this is some small sample of success. He’s not nearly in the same class of hitter as Kurtz or Ward — and Lauer’s in the midst of a great campaign — but I’ll take chance on Vierling at a tempting number.
