This is the final game of a four-game series in Cleveland between the Guardians and visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Charlie Morton is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore while Logan Allen is slated to start for Cleveland.
Orioles at Guardians prediction, preview
Charlie Morton has been mid, as the kids like to say, through 88.2 innings this season. When you factor in that Morton is 41 years old, I humbly bow my head in reverence. He’s still averaging 94.2 mph on the fastball while posting an 11% swinging strike rate, 29.1% chase rate and 22.5% strikeout rate. The walk rate is high at 10%, though, while the ERA is 5.58. He’s 41 years old! Morton has experienced some misfortune, as the BABIP is .331. As a result, the FIP is much lower at 4.58.
There have been no discernible splits for Morton.
Morton has pitched at least six innings only four times this season. He’s allowed more than three earned runs six times. Four of those came in the first four starts of the season, but he did get roughed up for seven earned runs in his last start before the All-Star break. Morton faced Cleveland way back in mid-April, going five innings, striking out two, walking three and allowing five earned runs on seven hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians have struck out at the 16th-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is 26th-best in MLB.
Logan Allen is “only” 26 years old and “only” averages 91 mph on the fastball. Old man Morton is just shaking his head. But Allen just responds with “scoreboard”, or in this case, the ERA of 4.06 and FIP of 4.33. The K-BB% is only 8.6% for Allen but he does an excellent job of limiting hard contact, which is what most soft-tossing lefties do. The average exit velocity is 87.7 mph, and, while the barrel rate is 9.9%, the hard hit rate is only 34.5%.
Allen has been slightly better at home with a lower FIP and higher K-BB%. He’s been fairly split-neutral, but HR/9 is much higher against lefties.
Allen has pitched at least six innings six times, with three of those coming in the last four starts. He’s allowed more than three earned runs four times. Allen faced Baltimore way back in April and went 5.2 innings, striking out six and walking two without allowing an earned run.
The Orioles have struck out at the sixth-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being seventh in ISO. The wOBA is 27th-best.
As for bullpens, Baltimore has the 24th-lowest FIP while Cleveland has the sixth-lowest.
Orioles at Guardians pick, best bet
I think Morton and the Orioles bullpen get touched up a bit, but not sure the Guardians can sweep the leg. I do like them to win, though, as I have confidence in Allen.
