It seems that nobody can stop the Milwaukee Brewers these days — except for possibly Brewers manager Pat Murphy. In yesterday’s 1-0 loss to the Seattle Mariners, which broke an 11-game winning streak, Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh scored the only run of the game with his MLB-leading 39th homer of the season in the sixth inning. That homer might not have happened had Murphy not pulled Jacob Misiorowski after 3.2 innings despite his amassing seven strikeouts to that point.
Regardless, the series is tied, with the rubber match set to be played at 3:40 p.m. ET in Seattle. Quinn Priester will take the mound for Milwaukee, while Luis Castillo will start for the Mariners.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
After the Brewers scored 62 runs across their 11-game winning streak, their offense all of a sudden went cold last night, as a Jackson Chourio single, a Christian Yelich single, and a trio of late-game walks were all the damage they were able to impart. Logan Gilbert pitched the finest game of his season, twirling 6.1 shutout innings while conceding just those two singles and fanning 10, and Seattle sent its finest relievers out there to finish the job. The dominant pitching display overshadowed a somewhat lethargic offense that managed just four hits and two walks and relied heavily on the Big Dumper to do what he does best. The blast broke a six-game homer-less streak for Raleigh, tied for his third-longest of the season.
Milwaukee should feel pretty confident about bouncing back behind Priester, who has been very solid this season whether working as a starter or in bulk relief. In the 18 games in which the 24-year-old has taken the mound, the Brewers have gone 11-7, and Priester has amassed a 3.33 ERA and 3.96 FIP. Since giving up seven runs in 4.1 innings against the Chicago Cubs on May 2, Priester has been stellar, with a 2.52 ERA across 71.1 innings. He relies heavily on his sinker and his elite slider, so he induces ground balls at a 96th-percentile rate. He’s a good bet to keep the ball down against a Mariners team that hits grounders at an above-average rate, especially with fly-ball king Raleigh getting a rare rest day.
Castillo is no slouch either, though. The Dominican received Cy Young votes as recently as two seasons ago and has recorded a better ERA this season than he did in 2023, pitching to a 3.21 mark across his 115.0 innings. Despite a rough stretch in the middle of June, he’s settled down recently, giving up one or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts, and it’s no surprise that Seattle has won 12 of the 20 games in which he’s taken the mound. Milwaukee, which has produced the lowest barrel rate and average exit velocity in the league, isn’t well-suited to take advantage of Castillo’s weaknesses. However, Statcast figures indicate that he’s gotten pretty lucky — his expected ERA is 4.26 and he ranks above the median in just two of the 13 categories — which could easily flip today, given the absence of Raleigh’s elite framing.
Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+104)
Even if Raleigh were in the lineup for the Mariners, I’d have taken the team with the league’s best record at plus-money. Yesterday’s narrow defeat, which could’ve easily gone the other way if Misiorowski stayed in the game, didn’t change my tune on the Brewers overall.
Strong Lean: Brice Turang O0.5 Stolen Bases (+225)
Though Castillo is a fireballer who has consistently ranked above the league average in net bases prevented, he’s largely benefited from having Raleigh as his catcher. Garver ranks in just the 20th percentile in caught stealing above average and the second percentile in pop time.
