The Los Angeles Dodgers finally got a win last night, just their third in the last 13 games, edging out the Minnesota Twins when James Outman robbed Carlos Correa of a potential game-tying three-run shot at the deepest part of Dodger Stadium. It remains to be seen whether last night represented the start of a new hot streak or simply a respite in the losing.
The Dodgers should have a great chance of picking up another win tonight, with staff ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto set to take the mound. Minnesota will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, who’s not quite on Yamamoto’s tier.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
In general, good things tend to happen for Los Angeles when Yamamoto pitches. The 26-year-old right-hander has had a few rough starts in the last month and a half, prolonging his quest to become the first Japanese pitcher to win a Cy Young Award for at least one more season, but the fact that the Dodgers have won 11 of the 19 games that Yamamoto has started is certainly no coincidence. That record would certainly be even better if he hadn’t received the third-least run support of any qualified pitcher. But I have exceptionally high hopes for Yamamoto tonight; he’s coming off of a seven-inning, three-hit shutout and he will have had eight days of rest. He has a 0.90 ERA this season when pitching on six-plus days’ rest.
The Twins also have a winning record with Woods Richardson on the mound, coming out victorious in eight of the 24-year-old’s 15 starts. To his credit, he’s settled down after a rocky start to his season, tossing 19.2 innings and only giving up a pair of solo shots over his last four starts to lower his ERA from 5.06 to 3.95. Still, the advanced numbers indicate that he’s been only average across that span, as his FIP has been a good-but-not-great 3.85 and his 4.12 expected ERA is slightly worse than his actual mark. I expect at least one Los Angeles homer tonight, given that Woods Richardson has posted just a seventh-percentile ground ball rate and the Dodgers have led the league in fly ball rate in each of the past five seasons.
Los Angeles slugged four homers last night in the series opener: Shohei Ohtani went deep for the 35th time this season, Will Smith hit his 13th and 14th bombs, and Andy Pages contributed a solo shot for his 18th. Long balls were just about the Dodgers’ only source of offense, as they accounted for four of the team’s seven hits, but it was an encouraging display from an otherwise cold unit. Minnesota managed nine hits — two each from Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, and Matt Wallner and three from Royce Lewis — but went just one-for-eight with runners in scoring position. This season, the Twins have a .263 average with runners in scoring position, a roughly league-average mark, while Yamamoto’s .188 BAA in such situations is one of baseball’s best.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 Runs (-110)
Barring the occasional poor start, Yamamoto’s games just aren’t very conducive to offense, especially given how cold Los Angeles has been in its turn to bat for the entire month. I want to give respect here to Woods Richardson, too, given his recent hot form.
Strong Lean: Yoshinobu Yamamoto 8+ Strikeouts (+135)
Minnesota strikes out at roughly a league-average rate, but given that they chase and whiff at above-average clips — two areas in which Yamamoto is comparatively mediocre — it might be a particularly good matchup for him. Plus, he’s extremely well-rested, so 100 pitches is the expectation, and he’s recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of the five games in which he’s hit that mark.
