After Monday’s victory over the Detroit Tigers, the Pittsburgh Pirates closed their gap in the standings. To 20 games. It speaks to the colossal gap in these two squads.
Detroit has a stranglehold on the AL Central, leading by more than ten games. They’re in a heated race for the top seed in the American League playoffs as well; only two games separate the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Astros. Things haven’t been as rosy for the Pirates. If it wasn’t for the futility of the Rockies, Pittsburgh would have the worst record in the NL. They’re headed for a seventh straight losing season in the Steel City.
The Tigers are -149 moneyline favorites on the road on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pirates are +123 home underdogs. The total is set at eight runs. Let’s go ahead and dig into a prediction for this Tigers vs. Pirates contest.
Tigers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
This should be an exciting pitching matchup. The gap on the field may be vast, but the gap in the mound is significantly less so.
Casey Mize, the former No. 1 pick, takes the mound on Tuesday. He’s overcome early-career struggles and injuries to capitalize on his vast potential. The first-time All-Star owns a 3.15 ERA across 16 starts, and his breakout is a major factor in Detroit’s unexpected success.
Rightfully so, Paul Skenes gets a lot of the attention in the Pittsburgh rotation. But Mitch Keller is quietly having the best season of his career. His fastball has been impossible to square up, the command is excellent, and it adds up to an All-Star level campaign. While it may be wasted in Pittsburgh, we notice you, Mitch.
Keller isn’t good enough for me to believe in the Pirates. But he definitely changes how I view this game.
Tigers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
This Pirates offense has been one of the worst in the majors this year. Mize should be able to go through them like a hot knife through butter. The real question here comes down to the Tigers’ offense against Keller.
In four games since the All-Star break, Detroit’s bats have gone cold. They have just three runs in total. Keller isn’t going to wow you, but he keeps runners off base and pitches away from barrels. All of this adds up to a low-scoring affair. It may not wow you to watch, but it’s good for our wallets.
